Prolonged drought conditions associated with the strengthening El Niño phenomenon are expected to weigh further on the local agriculture sector, which contracted by an estimated 17 per cent during the April-to-June quarter.

The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), in its recent review of the economy’s performance, said the estimated decline in the sector’s real value added stemmed mainly from the lingering effects of Hurricane Melissa, with worsening drought conditions now compounding those challenges by reducing crop yields and the area of land harvested.

“Current drought conditions have been impacting on several industries and agriculture is one — electricity and water supply is another. This is expected to continue as the El Niño phenomenon becomes more apparent,” PIOJ Senior Director of the Economic Planning and Research Division James Stewart said, during a quarterly briefing held by the institute last week.

During the April-to-June quarter, the sector’s contraction was driven by a 12.9 per cent reduction in the area of domestic crops reaped as total output per hectare declined.

The performance, which also reflected an 8.4 per cent decline in the output of other agricultural crops, saw lower production recorded in six of the nine crop groups. The largest declines were recorded for plantains, down 77.5 per cent; yams, down 31.9 per cent; fruits, down 30.3 per cent and legumes, down 20.4 per cent.

“A 64 per cent decline in traditional export crops largely saw lower production of sugar cane, down 15.0 per cent and banana, down 72 per cent. These declines were sufficient to outweigh an estimated increase in coffee production,” PIOJ Director General Dr Wayne Henry said, during his presentation of the latest estimates.

Henry also noted a 2.7 per cent contraction in animal farming, reflecting decreases of 1.7 per cent in poultry meat production and 26.6 per cent in egg production.

Henry, however, said that targeted Government interventions could help to temper this fallout, even as wider challenges, including geopolitical tensions and supply chain pressures, continue to weigh on output.

Agriculture Minister Floyd Green, recently outlining the Government’s response to the drought, said that, in addition to providing emergency water supplies, it had accelerated longer-term investments in irrigation and water storage.

“When I spoke in Parliament, we announced about $140 million in support, and that was done through the National Irrigation Commission, through MPs and also through RADA. From that time, we have trucked, I think, about 11 million gallons of water to farmers,” he said.

Green said a further $60 million had been allocated, with much of the additional funding being used to continue water trucking.

He said the Government is also rolling out a programme to construct catchment ponds to allow farmers to capture and store rainfall during periods of heavy rain. About 20 areas have been identified for the initial roll-out.

“For these catchment ponds, we have two programmes through RADA whereby, if there is an individual farmer, he will have to do the excavation of the pond. We will give him the sizing and the dimensions, and then we will provide the pond liner for him free of cost, which oftentimes comes as the greatest cost,” Green said.

“For groups coming together as a community, they can, however, identify the area and the Government will undertake full excavation and set up the entire pond for them free of cost,” he added.

The minster, who outlined a raft of drought-mitigation strategies during his sectoral presentation in Parliament earlier this year, said the measures were designed to bolster agricultural output following successive weather-related shocks.

Before Hurricane Melissa, the sector recorded growth of almost 21 per cent during the July-to-September 2025 quarter, as output increased across most production areas following Hurricane Beryl in 2024.

However, following the devastation caused by Hurricane Melissa in October 2025, which severely affected major crop-producing parishes across western Jamaica, the sector recorded consecutive contractions of 17.7 per cent in the October-to-December quarter and 18.3 per cent in the January-to-March quarter.

Green said that while farmers have made significant progress in rebuilding production following millions of dollars in damage and losses from Hurricane Melissa, the increasingly dry conditions and limited access to water are making the recovery even more difficult, particularly for vegetable farmers.

Pointing to progress on major irrigation projects, including the Essex Valley irrigation system, which is expected to serve about 1,200 hectares of farmland, he said the Government is targeting completion by the end of September or early October.

Under the Southern Plains Agricultural Development Project, farmers at the Parnassus Agro-Park in Clarendon are already benefiting from millions of gallons of irrigation water daily, servicing more than 700 acres of arable land.

“While our farmers may not be able to benefit from these developments during this drought, they certainly should be able to do so by the next. As a country, what we have to ensure is that each year, we are better able to face the drought, and one of the key things, as Government, that we will have to treat with is to expand the irrigation network — and we are doing that,” Green said.