We are approaching that time again when we will have to decide the direction of our country. A local government election is due by February 2024. An all-in-one local and general election is highly probable, some pundits say. Be that as it may, one thing is certain, the stakes are high for the ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), and even higher for the People’s National Party (PNP).

In any high stakes competition some people invariably lose their cool. Bloody elections in this country have shown us that dozens lose more than their cool. Nearly 900 Jamaicans were killed in the run-up to the October 30, 1980 General Election. This was the crescendo of violent elections.

Political violence, credible scholarship has shown, started to germinate in the 1940s. The key player in the infancy of political violence in Jamaica was a clandestine PNP gang called Group 69. It was hatched in western Kingston. Its major objective was to cleanse western Kingston of JLP supporters and, in particular, Alexander Bustamante.

Unfriendly banter in the 50s and, thereafter, nasty epithets and vitriol descended into stone-throwing and later distribution of assorted weapons, inclusive of Molotov cocktails, also known as petrol bombs or poor man’s grenades, in the 60s. By the 70s and 80s massive supplies of guns were brought into the deadly political descent. Those who disagree with me might want to revisit credible research, which sets out the juncture at which party political violence metamorphosed into a veritable monster in this country.

Owing to a combination of conscientious actions by many well-thinking Jamaicans, the introduction of game-changing technology and insightful legislation, the monsters of widespread election fraud and violence in the run-up to and during national elections have been significantly neutralised in the last 40 years.

Career-ending election

It is in the interest of all Jamaicans that we resist with all our might any attempt to reintroduce violence as a staple or violence in any shape or form in our election process.

Sadly, some in high positions of leadership and seeking even higher positions have in recent months made statements which would seem to support the resurrection of election skulduggery, which is almost always a precursor to maiming and murder at election time. We must not ignore frightening harbingers from these win-at-all-costs merchants. I maintain that these kinds of individuals hurt the growth and development of our country.

While some pundits maintain that we will have a two-in-one election, I believe there will be one, the local government, consistent with commitments made by the Andrew Holness-led Administration.

I don’t believe the upcoming poll will be a walk in the park for the Administration. The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) currently holds nine of the 13 local authorities. It will have to pull out all the stops to retain and/or add to the count.

The stakes are high. Indeed, only the wilfully blind do not recognise that some political careers may well come to a crashing end when Jamaicans next go to the polls.

The JLP cannot afford to lose the upcoming polls. To do so would throw a political lifeline to the still-divided PNP and its embattled president. Recall that I previously said here: “People’s National Party (PNP) President Mark Golding’s position atop the shaky political perch will be pulled hither and thither by increased tensions and dogged by cock-ups, inexpert optics, and amateurish political choreography until he achieves a consequential victory at the ballot box.” (Jamaica Observer, July 11, 2021) I have been proved right, several times, since that political forecast.

Golding, Campbell, and Brown-Burke

On the matter of forecasts, one does not need a degree in political science to figure out that Golding needs to win the upcoming local government election or alternatively achieve a very decent draw. A result short of either, and I believe Golding; Dr Dayton Campbell, his general secretary, and PNP Chairman Dr Angela Brown-Burke will be unceremoniously tossed from atop their lofty perches. Why? As I noted previously, the PNP is suffering from an advanced case of Jamaica House withdrawal syndrome. The bananaquits, John chewits, and black-bellied plovers tweet that the remaining big funders of the PNP have lost all patience with losers.

Several recent scientific polls have shown that Golding’s favourability continues to flatline, this after nearly three years at the helm. And Dr Campbell, the chief executive officer of the 85-year-old PNP continues to have a torrid time organising the party’s machinery as evidenced, for example, in the cock-ups which blemished the selection process for several standard-bearers.

Additionally, based on several recent incidents which have boiled over into the public square, it is obvious, maybe except to the self-deluded, that Dr Campbell has not cemented a good place in the confidence of even hard-core supporters.

Consider this: ‘KD cautions PNP — veteran politician says gen sec struggling to get a seat spells trouble.’ The news item said, among other things: “Knight, a former Cabinet minister in several PNP Administrations and a formidable political campaigner, issued the advice in a PNP WhatsApp group in response to discord in Westmoreland Eastern over the party’s selection of General Secretary Dayton Campbell to contest the seat instead of Dr Glenville Hall.”

Campbell’s selection angered some Comrades in the constituency, and this week, as he toured the riding, they openly voiced their displeasure, threatening to withhold their vote if the party’s decision is not reversed.

In his WhatsApp message made public on Thursday, Knight pointed to the struggle Dr Campbell was facing to win total support in the constituency, and said it signalled that something was wrong.

“Any day we get to the point where the general secretary has to struggle to get a seat — since the general secretary is now allowed to sit in the Lower House and still remain general secretary — any day that individual has to struggle for a seat, then it sends a terrible message to the party, to the public, and will have a debilitating effect on the People’s National Party, or if it is a situation that obtains with the JLP, the same,” Knight said.

“The general secretary is the chief executive officer of a party, and he is integral in determining who should run, where, and [the] process, and if he now has to struggle to get a seat, something [is] wrong, and the effect will be felt. So we have to be careful how we are proceeding in East Westmoreland,” Knight said.

Dr Angela Brown-Burke’s work, the birds chirp, has not sufficiently excited the base of the party either.

Good Move, Montague

Again the stakes are very high. I was happy that chairman of the JLP Robert Montague took on a positive pre-emptive posture when he addressed a Lime Hall Divisional Conference in Steer Town in St Ann North Eastern last Sunday.

Mr Montague said, among other things, “In the upcoming campaign, I want us to cool it. Cool it, because the other side, when dem realise that losing ketch dem and desperation run up innah dem, dem going to try something.

“And I am saying to all Labourites, we are the party in Government and we must conduct ourselves with maturity and restraint. So when dem throw wud after we, we must walk away, because the injury or death of one Jamaican over politics is too much. And my party leader and prime minister, and all the Labour Party, we don’t want that.

“We want every Labourite to live until dem old and witness the prosperity that Andrew Holness is bringing to Jamaica.

“So we in the Labour Party, we are going to conduct ourselves in such a way that those who don’t join nuh party will see that we are the better choice. Our party name start with ‘Jamaica’. Our party middle name is hard work, because if you labour that means yu work. And we end with ‘party’, because we are one big family.

“I have already called the chairman of the other side, and I have said to her, ‘Our party will conduct ourselves responsibly. And if you hear that we not doing it, call me, because Andrew Holness and his Government have carried Jamaica too far for one or two little idlers to turn us back.’ “

Indeed, well-thinking Jamaicans cannot afford to let opportunistic power seekers ruin the massive gains of mostly incident-free elections, especially over the last three decades. If we were to backslide into election violence, I fear it would awaken terrible ghosts from the 70s and early 80s. The impact would be deleterious and set us back for decades.

we Cannot backslide now

Backsliding is not option, as I see it. The fact is, Jamaica has been moving ahead by mere inches in the last five decades when we could and should have been marching ahead by leaps and bounds. Why?

Among other reasons, for too many years administrations routinely discarded the programmes and policies of predecessors. It did not matter whether they had merit. Hundreds of millions of dollars literally went down the drain. That foolish approach to the management of our national affairs set us back for many years.

I could list here scores of programmes — some were implemented and returned good results, others were midway in implementation, and still others were on the brink of execution — that were simply flung out the window when administrations changed. This was bad governance.

Confucius said, “Success depends upon previous preparation, and without such preparation, there is sure to be failure.” It is a great pity that our major political leaders did not discover this wisdom until the country was brought to its knees. To the credit of the last four administrations — led by prime ministers Bruce Golding, Portia Simpson Miller, Andrew Holness 2016 to 2020, and Andrew Holness 2020 to present — the self-defeating practice of throwing out the baby with the bathwater has been prudently tamed.

Of course, perhaps the most tragic area of regression in this country was the chopping and changing of fiscal policies. For many years we allowed politics to dictate economics. Where did this take us? We ended up with inflation at 49.4 per cent (1978) and a little over 50 per cent during the 90s. By 2013 our debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) was 147 per cent, making Jamaica one of the most indebted countries in the world.

The scourge of violence has been one of our biggest retardants. Several of my The Agenda pieces have examined how our long-standing and abnormal murder rate continues to be a huge financial, emotional, and social millstone around our necks.

International reggae legend Bob Marley, in one of his seminal songs, sings, “We don’t need no more trouble.” I agree. Those who make irresponsible statements on the election podium, which, among other things, incite political supporters, are in my view involved in a most dangerous betrayal of our people and country. Well-thinking Jamaicans have a duty to resist these gluttonous opportunists with every democratic tool at our disposal.

Montague’s affirmation of peace and peaceful elections on the political stump is a good look, as we say in the streets. I hope it will have what I believe is the intended effect of cooling tempers and temperature in the lead-up to national elections. I hope the PNP will reciprocate with a similar commitment on the political platform. I think during the merriment of campaigning supporters need to be candidly told by their leaders that the shedding of their countryman’s blood as a means to gain political power is never right.

Indeed, the political podium must be used for much more than the blowing of vuvuzelas, the playing of music at deafening decibels, the showing off of the latest dance moves and political couture.

On that score, I was very impressed with Member of Parliament for St Catherine North Eastern Kerensia Morrison, who ably used the podium at the mentioned divisional meeting in Lime Hall last Sunday to talk about the critical matter of domestic violence, one of the biggest contributors to Jamaica’s abnormal murder rate.

Political stump speeches must also edify and Prime Minister Andrew Holness, while speaking at a constituency conference in Clarendon North last Sunday, delivered a good lesson on the dangers of fake news.