WITH a total production of approximately two million kilogrammes of chicken meat per week, the island’s poultry industry stands to lose up to $240 million weekly if the avian flu virus – or bird flu – finds its way to Jamaica, industry experts say.

On that estimate, Jamaica’s annual poultry sector could lose an annual $12.48 billion, but that estimate is of the production side only and does not factor in companies whose business is exclusively the sale of food.

Over seven million birds would be at risk, while the livelihoods of approximately 30,000 persons, including that of almost 10,000 chicken farmers, would be threatened.

“We are placing roughly 1.3 million birds per week (going out to farms) which are taken back out of the system in six weeks,” explained Michael Pryce, director of the agriculture ministry’s Data Bank and Evaluation Division, noting that the figure fluctuates based on seasonal demand.

“At any one time we will have seven million live birds in various stages of growth,” he told the Sunday Observer.

Global fears have heightened with a possible widespread outbreak of the disease, with the emergence of a virulent and deadly H5N1 strain of the virus in Turkey in September.

Yesterday, test results also confirmed the same strain in Romania, AP reported.

Some countries have began to stockpile vaccines to combat the disease, over fears that it would mutate and spread from human to human.

Humans have no natural immunity to the disease.

What countries are stockpiling are vaccines against viral infections, and not specifically the bird flu.

Already Tamiflu, made by Swiss-based Roche Holding AG, is in short supply.

Transnational health response agencies, PAHO and WHO, encourage the stockpiles – recommending a 25 per cent cover of country populations – saying it would be the first line of defence until an avian flu vaccine is developed.

That vaccine cannot be developed until scientists understand how the virus behaves, and they cannot fully map its behaviour until there is a true outbreak among humans, world health experts have warned.

The European Commission now reports on its website that:

“Poultry and pigs are considered the most likely source of new strains capable to cross the species barrier from animal to man, through a mutation mechanism.”

A strain of the disease has killed as many as 65 persons in four Asian countries since 2003.

But authorities here are saying there is no need for panick, at least not yet.

“There is a threat and with globalisation anything can happen,” said veterinary officer at the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) Veterinary Division, Dr Osbil Watson.

“But how serious the threat is, it is difficult to say at this point,” he adds.

Osbil said the division’s eyes are set squarely on the United States. If the US has an outbreak, he said, there would be much cause for concern considering that country’s close proximity to the island and an expected influx of migratory birds from that hemisphere to Jamaica during the upcoming winter season.

“We would be very concerned if it gets to the US,” he said. “If it should hit mainland America and get into the bird population, it is possible that the birds that migrate here would take it with them.”

The veterinary division is currently carrying out surveillance of various flock and poultry establishments, and taking blood samples to test for the presence of the disease.

The division, he said, is working closely with the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), that has set guidelines on the monitoring of the situation and protecting the country from the entry of the disease.

Additionally, he said, the division has a standard comprehensive emergency disease preparedness plan that outlines the steps to deal with exotic diseases, including bird flu.

“So what the plan puts forward are all the steps involved in the identification, diagnosis, control and eradication of any such disease,” he told the Sunday Observer.

The activities of the veterinary division form part of a master plan developed by the Ministry of Health.

According to chief medical doctor, Dr Marion Bullock-Ducasse, the ministry has developed a preparedness and control plan for avian influenza should a pandemic occur.

The plan, she said, uses a similar methodology to that developed in relation to similar threats from severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the chemical agent anthrax over recent years.

“The plan is what we call the authoritative guide for the Ministry of Health in combination with the MOA, detail actions to effectively deal with any influenza pandemic and this is in keeping with World Health Organisation global influenza preparedness plan,” she told the Sunday Observer Friday night.

The plan, said Bullock-Ducasse, would “assist and ensure that there is appropriate planning and responsibility for the prevention, care and treatment during any outbreak.”

It also speaks to how the communication flow between the public and the health ministry would be handled, as well as ensure the proper management of resources.

But while the authorities, are saying there are little reasons to worry at this time, industry stakeholders such as the Jamaica Broilers (JB) Group that has a 45 per cent stake in the local poultry market, are putting in place individual plans should a pandemic occur.

Jamaica Broilers and Caribbean Broilers are the two largest producers locally, accounting for approximately 65 per cent of the local market combined.

“We are putting in various protocols in place to deal with any possible outbreak at different levels,” said JB’s vice-president Christopher Levy. “It’s not an issue that we face now, but probably it will become an issue, and the more concerned we get, the more aggressive our actions will be,” he said.

“We don’t think it is a red alarm, but it is certainly on the radar.”

martina@jamaicaobserver.com