SMALL island states, including Jamaica, face a grim future if the climate negotiations here fail today to deliver a deal with big greenhouse gas emission cuts to limit earth’s temperature to 1.5 degrees.

“We need to improve our boat-building art [and] teach our kids to swim because sooner or later we are going to have to swim for it,” said science advisor to the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), Dr Albert Binger, referencing the expected sea level rise associated with climate change.

AOSIS, in a 26-page proposal for an outcome of the deliberations issued on December 11, called for a long term goal to “limit global average temperatures to well below 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to long term stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations AND to well below 350 parts per million of carbon dioxide equivalent” . It also called for an agreement to peak global emissions by no later than 2015 and reduce by at least 85 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050.

After 13 days of heated debate over who is responsible for climate change, there is no clear sign yet that parties will be acting on AOSIS proposal. Many at the negotiating table are reluctant as they consider the “too ambitious” targets as holding negative political consequences for them.

“The bottom line is the Annex 1 [developed] countries do not want to give their opposition party any ammunition. They don’t want to have to raise taxes. They don’t want to have to bare the cost of alternative energy. [But] to solve this problem something has to go,” Binger said.

Also at play are other competing interests within and among trading blocs. China, for example, is not concerned by sea level rise such that it would be willing to settle for a two degrees rise in temperature as against the 1.5 being advanced by the 43-member AOSIS — despite their both being members of the Group of 77 & China trading block. Oil-producing states are concerned about their economies which could be undermined over the long term by a global move to alternative fuel sources. The United States, meanwhile, wants binding emission targets from faster developing countries such as Brazil, China and India. Brazil, China and India, on the other hand — while not unwilling to commit to targets — insists it is the United States and Europe that have historical responsibility for emissions. All this, as mistrusts belie the continuing talks.

Still, AOSIS is hopeful for a favourable outcome.

“Yesterday [Wednesday] there was greater uncertainty as to whether there was any point and [But] we have been doing our level best to play a critical role in advancing the process,” noted Prime Minister of Belize Dean Barrow.

His sentiment was echoed by Barbados’ foreign affairs and foreign trade minister, Maxine McLean.

“I want to say that AOSIS is a bridge builder as we recognise the composition of AOSIS itself as the countries who stand to lose substantially and most immediately from the impact of climate change, and therefore we would want to see an outcome which brings a number of immediate benefits to the countries,” she said. “Of course, we are critically aware of the contending interests and we hope that all of these nations can be accommodated in the negotiations.”

AOSIS chair, ambassador Dessima Williams said, in the interim, that already the group had made overtures to the United States, in an attempt to help broker a deal.

“AOSIS has indicated that we are willing to engage the US in a way that will benefit us so that when he [US president Barack Obama] comes to Copenhagen, AOSIS is one of the parties that he is already engaged in conversation with,” she said.

Williams made it clear, however, that all countries needed to contribute to the climate solution.

“All countries must contribute & commensurate with their capacity to do so on the mitigation side. On the financing side, we are looking for an ambitious figure and fast start — a figure of 10 billion — which we put forward. I know that the US is interested in management structure and we will also be involved in looking at the overall governance, she noted.