Dear Editor,

Did Jamaica dodge the proverbial bullet?

The earthquake experienced by our brothers in Haiti was in essence “predicted” by keen work done by Jamaica’s own Dr Margaret Wiggins-Grandison (formerly of the UWI) as part of a team of international geologists led by Dr Paul Mann of the University of Texas.

The palaeosesimic study of the Enriquillo-Plantain garden Strike Slip fault (essentially a forensic analysis of historic seismic events on the fault) was presented at the 18th Caribbean Geological Conference held in Santo Domingo in March 2008. In that paper it was reported that “historical earthquakes indicate that the last major movement of the fault occurred … in 1751 in south-central Hispaniola and perhaps culminated in the Kingston, Jamaica, event in 1907.” It further stated that there had been no significant movement along that fault for the past 40 years and as such was assumed to be in a “fully locked” state. Given that 40-year immobilisation and knowing the expected rate of movement per year (~8mm/yr) on the fault, it was calculated that a magnitude 7.2 should be expected between Port-Au-Prince, Haiti and Kingston, Jamaica to release that pent-up strain.

On Tuesdaaaaaay, our brothers in Haiti felt the effects of that sudden release of energy along the fault. As our hearts and prayers go out to all those affected by this tragedy, we must all be reminded of the invaluable importance of sound scientific research in charting our future developments within the Caribbean, especially Jamaica.

As we look back and see just how lucky we are, let us all, as a nation, hold a collective moment of silence for our Caribbean neighbours who have suffered in Haiti.

Brian Richardson

Kingston