The 2010-2011 GOJ Budget is as credible as Finance Minister Audley Shaw will ever be and in a real way will determine his political fortunes. With much bravado, the wily politician and astute minister all wrapped in one, recently wowed his audience in Gordon House and the wider society via the electronic media. Indeed, after his most ebullient and overconfident performance, one is tempted to dub him “Mr Bombastic”!

Having so far steered clear of the Manatt/Dudus affair, except for that ridiculous faux pas that he made at a Jamaica Labour Party meeting about the Leader and Prime Minister Bruce Golding dropping a bombshell at the Commission of Enquiry, “Man A Yard” has outshone his other Cabinet colleagues on the domestic front. Even his detractors and some People’s National Party supporters were quick to admit that his latest budget presentation may well have had a decidedly adverse effect on the PNP’s chances of winning the next general election.

The various tax breaks which were not (at least for now) accompanied by any new taxes have given many Jamaicans a certain comfort level so much so that after his dudget presentation, there was a collective sigh of relief across the country. Not that “happy days are here again”, but after much pain without any discernible amount of gain, the people were forced to believe that they had got some respite.

In the meantime, Shaw’s seeming tour de force has forced the Jamaican electorate to take an even closer look at the Opposition PNP who up to now, it has been said, are quietly waiting for the mango to ripe and drop. The potent question being asked is, has the PNP’s finance spokesman, Dr Omar Davies, once described as a “world-class finance minister”, risen to the occasion and outdone his arch-rival Minister Shaw? Given the Finsac debacle which is now under the microscope via the Commission of Enquiry, many Jamaicans, including some supporters of the PNP, feel that Dr Davies should be relieved of that portfolio, and that if the Portia Simpson-Miller-led party has any real hopes of retaking power, then it must do the right thing and let him go. Already, some political pundits feel he would make an excellent minister of education, given the commendable work he has undertaken in his constituency.

Meanwhile, there are a sizeable number of Labourites who feel that incumbent Leader Bruce Golding is damaged goods and they have been taking a closer look at Minister Shaw who could well take the JLP into the next general election in fine style, given his Cabinet track record so far and his verbal prowess on the hustings, having the ability to whip up his audience into a frenzy with telling bites at his opponents as well as news bytes that grab prime-time attention.

But can Shaw’s ascendancy put to rest (even for the time being) the ambitions of the young Turks, namely, Agriculture and Fisheries Minister Dr Christopher Tufton and Education Minister Andrew Holness? Not to mention yon Transport and Works Minister Mike Henry who some say has a lean and hungry look (this, of course, has no bearing on his portly figure), notwithstanding his age.

In the case of Dr Tufton, he has been solidifying his status in the JLP by his celebrated efficiency as agriculture minister and his defeat of party stalwart Dr Horace Chang, water and housing minister, in the Area Four chairmanship race. Perhaps his greatest disadvantage, though, is that he is still seen as one of the former National Democratic Movement luminaries whom Bruce Golding took with him into the JLP. It is no secret that there has been some discontent in the JLP with respect to the perception that Golding has gone out of his way to give his NDM friends key positions in the party, thus assuring them accelerated upward mobility as against “holding down” long-serving Labourites who never left the party during its many years in the political wilderness.

As for Andrew Holness, has he been playing the role of the blushing bride waiting to be taken over the threshold? He will soon learn that politics has no sympathy for nice guys and that a little Machiavellian ruthlessness is all part and parcel of the endgame. His contentious relationship with the teachers and the kind of haphazard way in which the Education Ministry is being managed as it lurches from one crisis to another, or from one old project to a new one (phew!), may in the long run suggest that his learning curve will take a while to be completed. Then, too, his unwillingness to have challenged old-timer Desmond McKenzie for the Corporate Area leadership of the JLP could send a signal to grass-roots followers that he does not have the stomach for a hard-fought competition – a quality one must have if one is in it (the leadership race that is) for the long haul. Luckily, for him though, the recent RJR/Boxill Polls have been most kind to them – a scenario that could in the long run turn out to be more of a bane than a blessing.

Mike Henry’s “The train is coming, Baby” mantra and JDIF bonanza make him a force to be reckoned with inside and outside the party. Mike, despite his chronological age, has displayed much exuberance, hence his getting the support of the G2K in his pivotal role as party chairman.

The JLP appears to have an impressive cadre of leadership aspirants. Audley Shaw, if he is able to steer the boat ashore safely and with enough booty on board to satisfy an economically starved nation, will find himself in good stead to succeed the Golden One who is said to have lost his sheen.

lloydbsmith@hotmail.com