ONE reader e-mailed me the following: ‘We are witnessing a phenomenal political transformation in Jamaica that has no parallel, and from all indications the possibility of the PNP old bus being traded in for JEEP is looking pretty remote. Seems like Sista P will be facing a lot of difficulty traversing the terrain, because she has been unable to acquire the JEEP.

‘Never thought that in our lifetime we would have witnessed political surprises of such magnitude. The elevation of young Andrew Holness to the leadership slot in the JLP is an unpleasant surprise that has put the PNP in a tailspin, and has prevented Sister P from taking that Jeep out of the dealership’s showroom.’

There is no doubt that Golding’s shock resignation and the ease with which the JLP has managed to place Andrew Holness at the top of the pecking order have sent jitters through the PNP. It seems to me that the PNP was hoping that Audley Shaw would be the man to face Portia Simpson Miller at the next elections.

It is obvious that the PNP’s chess game is weak. The oldsters in the party should have had a plan B and plan C.

Said another reader: ‘After KD Knight’s theatrical performance under the television cameras at the Manatt Enquiry, his and the PNP’s political stocks supposedly went up (according to the RJR/Boxill Polls). Seems like those stocks have crumbled worse than how the “DOW JONES” crumbled on Wall Street, and as such the PNP will have to wheel and come again in the hopes that divine intervention will assist in those stocks rising again. Was Wednesday, October 5, 2011 “Black Wednesday” for Sista P and the PNP, when the JLP Parliamentary group

rallied behind Andrew Holness as their choice to replace the Driva? The PNP stocks crashed on that day.’

Another wrote: ‘I enjoyed your October 6 Observer column. It was well written and challenges the reader to think. Point well taken; Mr Golding is an astute politician. Indeed, the coming general election campaign will be interesting. The stubborn, inflexible, pedantic PNP eadership, versus the young, eager, “untainted” JLP leader. Let the match begin.’

Already the first set of polls done have shown the JLP drawing statistically even with the PNP. This is phenomenal stuff. If that trend holds and young Andrew Holness says all the right things and makes all the right moves between JLP conference and March next year, there could be a significant shifting of those poll numbers to favour the JLP by maybe five or six percentage points.

It is obvious that Simpson Miller is no pushover, but in the coming months the contrasts will be more visible to the voting public.

Andrew Holness is no Michael Manley, but in the JLP he stands out as having a large bit of that same appeal. Were I in the PNP I would be having jitters too.

The youth arm of the JLP, the entity called G2K, must take some credit for its campaign on behalf of youth in the party who are bright and capable but who would always dutifully sit at the table and await the crumbs which fell from the oldsters. Most of these crumbs were stalled policies and low energy, but still the youngsters had to remain silent.

That has now shifted, and once the focus is made on the PNP, a different set of faces, old faces, failed faces, faded faces will be seen.

Government should monitor the growing of Tobacco

AS the anti-Tobacco lobby heats up and there are widespread calls for wellness and the practice of better lifestyles, one other country, Britain, has banned cigarette vending machines.

At home, however, there has been an increase in the unregulated cultivation of tobacco in the last three years.

A recent survey carried out by RADA (Report on Assessment of Tobacco Production in Jamaica) March 2011 said in part of its Executive Summary, “The total number of farmers within the sub-sector was ascertained to be 573, with the highest concentration located in St Elizabeth (153 farmers) and St Ann (137 farmers). In terms of acreage of the crop however, the largest acreage of tobacco was found in St Ann, which accounted for more than a third of the estimated total acreage of tobacco islandwide.

“The crop was found to be mainly a small farmer-driven crop. Nearly 92 per cent of tobacco farms were less than one acre in size.

“The concentration of tobacco farmers was mainly among the older farmers. More than 80 per cent of farmers were 40 years or older.

“The estimated acreage of tobacco in production is 310.5 acres. With an assumption of a single crop per year, and using a national average yield of 1,600 lb/ac, it is estimated that approximately 496,800 lbs of tobacco are produced on an annual basis.”

The survey also gave an indication as to what had been driving this unregulated farming of tobacco.

“Led by strong demand in a mainly informal market for locally grown tobacco and, to a lesser extent, the demand for tobacco for a small cigar-making sub-sector, the cultivation of tobacco has been on an upward growth curve. This is evidenced by the number of new tobacco farmers identified by the survey. More than half of the farmers indicated that they have been growing tobacco for less than two years.”

All one has to do is make a cursory examination of the ganja market at point of sale to get an idea of the dual sale of ganja and tobacco (‘grabba’). Some sellers of ganja wrap the tobacco in little bags while others simply tear a piece from the leaf when a buyer makes a request for ‘grabba’.

While the stock of ganja is hidden, no such effort is made to hide the tobacco.

The fact that it is a small-man crop will, in this economy, result in howls of protest should there be any attempt to regulate and tax these farmers. Whichever way it is looked at it means that approximately 497,000 lbs of tobacco are being grown and sold outside of the tax net.

When contacted for a comment on the results of this survey, Carreras Jamaica Limited said: “We agree that governments should consider the protection of the environment and the health of persons as regards tobacco cultivation in their countries. Also we believe that while the demand for tobacco exists, farmers should have the right to choose whether they invest in tobacco cultivation or not.

“However, we believe that this cultivation should be done under the supervision of the authorities and together with the compliance of predetermined regulation such as paying taxes, adherence to the environmental standards, and specially, compliance with local labour requirements for their employees.

“Although in Jamaica, our company hasn’t cultivated tobacco since the early 1990s, we recognise its importance as a sustainable crop. In many countries, British American Tobacco (BAT) contracts external farmers to supply tobacco for use in our production process and we also work closely with these farmers, communities, government officials and educational institutions to seek to address these challenges.

“We believe that as a responsible tobacco business, we can contribute, through information, ideas and practical steps, to helping regulators address the key issues surrounding our product — under-age access, illicit trade, product information, cultivation of tobacco leaf, product safety, involuntary exposure to smoke and the development of potentially less harmful products, while ensuring that we continue to be of service to the adult population who choose to be tobacco consumers.

“We don’t believe that governments should try to push farmers out of tobacco growing as this will result in social, economic and other negative results for those farmers and their wider communities. Instead they should direct them to comply with the local laws and regulations; and avoid promoting the illegal trade. At the same time, it is paramount to have a system where all tobacco products that end up in the hands of the consumer pay the same level of taxes.

“Also, we do not have any issue with governments deciding to promote, as appropriate, economically sustainable alternatives to tobacco growing if tobacco farmers in their countries are not seriously affected as a consequence of local tobacco control programmes. Any such measures would be in line with the actual scope of the obligation which governments agreed to under Article 17 of the FCTC.”

The Tobacco Industry Regulation Act (1970) quite obviously needs an update to reflect the change in the environment. While I would not expect the anti-tobacco lobby to see eye to eye with any cigarette manufacturing or distribution company, as long as it is still legal to smoke cigarettes, increasingly in more confined spaces to reflect the pressing health concerns, modifications to the Act must be made as much has changed in the health consciousness of the world since that time.

In these tough economic times, no one wants to be seen as ‘boxing food out of poor people’s mouths’. The fact is, though, that unregulated growing of tobacco and increased cultivation are pointing to an area where much revenue is slipping away from the authorities.

Another part of the survey captures this: “Tobacco is most commonly marketed in the form of bundled leaves and sold to higglers and middlemen. Some farmers have ventured into some amount of value-added, selling ‘jack ass rope’ and, to a lesser extent, in the form of homemade cigarettes and ground tobacco.

“Tobacco appears to be a lucrative and highly profitable crop. Almost all farmers expressed a preference for growing tobacco over other crops because of the ease of growing it and the high level of profitability accorded by a sustained year-round market offering good prices. The fact that the crop once reaped and dried can be easily stored for sustained periods was also a factor attracting farmers to the crop.

“Tobacco prices at the farm-gate reportedly ranged between $100/lb to as high as $8,000/lb with a modal price of $800/lb for dried bundled leaves. At this modal price, the estimated value of the industry at farm-gate is $397 million. This calculates to gross earnings per acre at the farm-gate of $1.28 million. The approximate mean annual gross earning per farmer is just under $693,000.

“Most farmers expressed plans to expand their tobacco production, with the intention to do this expansion during this year. Among the reasons given for this intention to expand were the good prices and demand for the crop. They did, however, have some concerns in doing so, such as the high cost and unavailability of agricultural labour; lack of access to land and irrigation; and unavailability and cost of planting material.”

Tom Tavares Finson would do well as representative in West Kingston

ONE expects that leading up to either the JLP conference or the next election Prime Minister Golding will be announcing his exit from

representational politics.

I cannot see him pulling back from leadership of the JLP and the post of prime minister while still holding on to representing the troubled

West Kingston constituency.

It is certainly known that since the military incursion in Tivoli Gardens, there has been no love lost between him and many of the residents.

For many years Senator Tom Tavares Finson has been a sort of unofficial representative in West Kingston, carrying out much work and ssistance in the community beyond what his profession entails. He is well known and respected by the residents.

I dare say that no one else in the JLP can make such a claim.

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