STOCK prices could double in as early as a year, reasoned panelists at the Mayberry Investor Forum.

This is based on a confluence of macroeconomic factors which make equities more attractive than lower-yielding fixed-income Jamaican dollar or US securities.

“I believe that the stock market is set to break out,” reasoned Gary Peart, chief executive at Mayberry Investments, in his presentation at the forum held on Wednesday at the Knutsford Court Hotel in Kingston.

Peart expects stock prices to double from 4.5 times earnings to “probably” 8.0 or 9.0 times earnings.

“At that point the psychology will [produce] a wave, probably early next year, and that will drive the multiples to much higher levels,” Peart said. “I qualify this by saying that it’s given the macro indicators continue.”

The positive indicators listed by Peart include low inflation, which influences low interest rates and a healthy net international reserve which can protect against rapid currency depreciation.

“As such, we think once the trend continues we believe you will see a real move in the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) Index,” reasoned Peart.

Rez Burchenson, managing director at Prime Asset Management, in his presentation advised investors to seek out bargains early and avoid the herd mentality of investing when gains are made and reported.

“There are gains to be made,” reasoned Burchenson. “Don’t wait for a story on the market on the front page of the Observer, etc, to try to get in. Because you may not make enough and suffer short-term volatility.”

Burchenson, however, did include a caveat that stocks could “perhaps” go lower, but that the probability of them going higher is “greater” than the probability of them going lower.

Keith Collister, another panelist at the forum, indicated that currently many persons are “tired” of the market based on its lacklustre performance in recent years. He reasoned that the lack of interest in the market currently offers bargains to the savvy investor.

“Buy stocks now because the JSE could double over the next one to two years,” stated Collister, who also writes for the Caribbean Business Report.

Fifteen active stocks on the JSE made double-digit returns during the first three months of 2015, signaling a shift from the lacklustre performance of last year. The two top stocks, Mayberry Investments and Paramount Trading, made gains of 38 and 37 per cent over three months, respectively, on the Main and Junior index.

Both companies benefited from strong financial performance which preceded the rise in prices. Mayberry’s annual profits rose sevenfold to over $700 million based on the sale of its stake in Access Financial Services Ltd. But Mayberry would still have made greater profit year-on-year without the sale.

Meanwhile, Paramount made $49.2-million profit for its second quarter ending November 2014 or 160 per cent higher year-on-year, due in part to new maintenance contracts.

Over three months, the main market index gained 9.7 per cent to close at 83,804 points for March 31, while the Junior market index gained 2.6 per cent of its value to 703 points.