(Today we begin a series of articles on some of the marginal constituencies across Jamaica, which could prove crucial in the outcome of the next general election expected soon. This issue is focused on the constituency of St Mary South East, now represented in Parliament by Dr Winston Green)

People’s National Party (PNP) Member of Parliament for St Mary South East, Dr Winston Green, believes that the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) erred when the JLP chose his challenger for the next general election due by the latest March 29, 2017, but which political analysts believe could be held in the first quarter of this year.

Green insisted that the JLP’s Dr Norman Dunn, whom he described as a political “neophyte”, is a weak contender for the seat. And while admitting that the last five general election results have been close, with the PNP winning four, he is certain that the work he has done in the constituency will see him return to the Lower House of Parliament.

“I think Dr Dunn’s intentions are good but may be late in coming,” Green told the Jamaica Observer during a tour of the constituency in December. “These little treats and football competitions … where were you all along to give anything back to the constituency?

“It appears to me like an opportunist venture but it’s not for me to say; it is for persons to say at the poll.

“In 2011 when the JLP did the polls and saw that [Tarn] Peralto was going to get a thrashing from me, they changed him and put in the Mayor of Port Maria Richard Creary who was very popular and he got a beating from me. Having done that, they have put in a neophyte, Dr Dunn, and I don’t mean any disrespect, but I think he will get a thrashing,” the first-time MP said.

AHEAD IN THE POLLS

Since the country has been placed on election watch last August when Dr Peter Phillips, the PNP’s campaign director, told Comrades to “get ready”, political observers have argued that the odds are against Green. But the MP, a Cuba-trained dental surgeon by profession, informed the Sunday Observer that an internal poll conducted by the party puts him ahead of his opponent.

“Well, the polls are looking reasonably good. I can’t reveal all the sources but the polls are looking good, anything between a seven and nine per cent lead. And I’m not comfortable with it, the work must continue, but of course, as expected, the polls and the canvass are showing that I’m in the lead,” he said.

Green, 57, who resides in the constituency, believes he has done enough to be returned as member of parliament. “…That is what the canvass result is showing. They know what I have done and they know what I have attempted to do. It is just dialogue; they have seen the things I do so they decided that in the four years, I have done so much and in the next term I will complete more,” he reasoned.

THE PROBABILITY OF VICTORY

The Sunday Observer has learnt, however, that there is some amount of discomfort among the top brass of the party as to whether Green, a graduate of Excelsior High School, can retain the seat. His challenge, a PNP source told the Sunday Observer, is to secure maximum votes in the Annotto Bay Division, which was won by the PNP in the last parish council election and is the largest division, but has not statistically proven to be a stronghold for either party. The source, who asked not to be named, believes that the MP’s attempt to win the Richmond Division is like a tall axe chopping at a mighty tree, despite the MP spending the majority of his time in the division. “Labourite cyaah win a Belfield; a PNP place that,” the source insisted, while admitting that the Castleton Division does not look “winnable” for the party.

THE WORK

The MP believes, however, that his work within the constituency will secure victory. Listed among them are rehabilitating roads which, he said, include the Epsom Road, Luna, Rosemount, Junction, Gibbs Hill, Enfield and now he is doing Belfield for the second time. “St Mary is one of the parishes with a great network of roads. We have started the process and we are going to continue,” said Green. He informed that he has also created areas for “skills training and for further education”.

“I have acquired some buildings from CHEC (China Harbour Engineering Company) Construction Company. It was in 2013 [that] I negotiated with them and I asked them if I could get some buildings. After a tedious negotiation they allowed me to have the buildings for educational purposes. We have placed them in roughly about eight different locations. And we have managed, in recent time, to retrofit the Annotto Bay High School. There is one at St Mary Technical High School and that has also been retrofitted. There was a skills training centre in Broadgate that has been defunct for some time [and] we intend to set it up,” he added.

In addition, Green said that improvement work will begin later this month to the tune of $25 million on the Markingstone Beach at Iterboreale, on the outskirts of Annotto Bay, heading in the direction of Portland. When completed, the beach will have, among other things, changing room facilities, lifeguards, and food outlets.

THE OPPOSITION SEES A DEFUNCT CONSTITUENCY

Despite Green insisting that a lot has been done in the constituency, the Opposition’s Dunn insists that very little has been done to develop the rural constituency under the PNP’s stewardship.

“…There’s the general decay of everywhere, the town of Annotto Bay, the general decay of the town of Enfield, the general decay of Richmond. It’s just the general decay everywhere. There’s no youth employment, no factory or productive enterprise. There’s just nothing. People have nothing to aspire to; people have nothing to hope towards. I mean it’s just ridiculous,” argued Dunn, a pharmacist and businessman by profession.

For Dr Dunn, there’s the general lack of proper infrastructure in the constituency. Among the issues are the lack of a proper sea wall at the Annotto Bay Health Centre; unpaved roads; no potable water; the issue of no electricity in some communities and the lack of commercial activity in key areas.

“That town of Richmond is dying. There’s little or no activity going on there except for some small commercial activity in the town. Things like the water situation where we just came through a period where we had so much demonstration and the information that was branded everywhere was that we had drought and drought was not the major issue. It was the lack of development of new streams of water resources,” Dunn told the Sunday Observer.

A PROMISE OF CHANGE

The newcomer said that his move into the constituency stems from the need to see a change.

“One of my main plans is to show persons that the constituency does not have to be how it is. There’s the lack of hope; the general despair and the dilapidation of a number of areas. So my plan is to ensure that the youth are given priority in whatever we do. Therefore we have to find ways to generate employment for the youth and or re-training in order to gear them towards whatever employment opportunities that might be,” he said.

According to Dunn, his aim is to ensure that there is some amount of industrialisation taking place within the constituency. “We want to develop bed and breakfast so that persons passing through the town can have places to stop. We want to develop some of the natural resources we have in the area…,” said Dunn. “We have to look at how we look at some of the informal settlements that are springing up everywhere around the place. How can we regularise the manner and how can we ensure that the proper services are in these places to accommodate people?

“We have to look at these social and environmental issues such as the drains in the town. The drains are not being cleaned. Where’s the representation that allows for that to happen on a consistent basis? And therefore, when you look at these things, these social malaise and anti-social behaviour, people don’t take pride in what they do anymore. So we have to ensure that we can bring back some of the pride by strong leadership and performance and what is required to let people see that a difference can be made. It is ridiculous,” he argued.

LOYALISTS DISAGREE WITH DUNN

Several constituents have defended the stewardship of the MP, however, insisting that he has done what is required of him in the constituency that has only seen two PNP representatives since it was formed in 1967.

“He has done tremendously by giving us water and all these things. He has done good so far. He has helped with housing for hopeless people and making houses and giving out a lot of stuff. He has repaired the community centre which is in process now. I am happy because young people of Broadgate can get active, meaning get a skill so we can improve ourselves in the workplace by getting a job and such,” Marsh Gibbs, who has been living in the constituency for 36 years, told the Sunday Observer.

Conrad Guscott, who has been living in the constituency for over 50 years, said his vote will go to the sitting member of parliament because of the work he has done and also because of the history of his community.

“…Mi proud a weh him [Green] do inna mi area. It was a trouble here with the water system. Many, many times we have a lot of problem with the water system and him come negotiate with the people and them come together and it work out that we have no more blocked roads and we get together now and a get good water,” he said, while admitting that Dunn is an associate of his.

“[Norman Dunn] is mi friend too, ’cause him talk to me a lot of times. Him come inna mi area too, the people them socialise with him, they talk to him same way but you know people always fancy PNP and they got to go with PNP. It was a PNP area from first. It’s a PNP stronghold for many, many years just like that,” Guscott added.

A DIFFICULT TASK FOR THE MP

In the meantime, at least one political pundit, Troy Caine, has reasoned that retaining the seat might prove to be very difficult for Green. “I think it is going to be very difficult [to win] on the basis of Dr Green’s last margin which was 424. That is a very small margin to defend in what is traditionally a JLP area,” Caine told the Sunday Observer.

Statistics from the Electoral Commission of Jamaica show that 354 people have been added to the voters’ list from that constituency.

“Dunn might not be successful if the PNP retains power islandwide,” Caine continued. This is where a seat like that can be judged; it is going to be very difficult for the JLP to win that seat if they are not going to be the ones who win the overall election. But if the JLP wins the election [and] there is a big enough swing islandwide, a seat like South East St Mary more than likely will vote JLP,” he noted.

Caine argued that for long, St Mary South East was a JLP stronghold, and has only become a clinically marginal seat since Harry Douglas’ departure following the 2007 General Election when he lost to the JLP’S Tarn Peralto by 34 votes. His last two victories were very marginal.

“[But] it is really since the Ross family has left there. There was a time when that seat was dominated by one family. During the Ross years, it was largely a JLP stronghold because it was never lost by the party and then Harry Douglas had it for four terms from 1989 to 2007. Since then it has really become a very marginal seat— sometimes marginal PNP, sometimes marginal JLP,” he outlined. “Now it might very well go back to being marginal JLP, because I hear Dr Green not doing very well at all and that Dr Dunn’s campaign is doing very well,” he continued.

And several constituents agreed to this when the

Sunday Observer made a stop in Annotto Bay, including Kevin Foster, who has lived in the constituency for approximately 32 years. “Is eight and a half years the People’s National Party a rule here. Mi been inna Annotto Bay Square a do business for over 14 years. I believe Dr Dunn is the man fi get the job; he will get the job done. Dr Dunn is the man … we sure. South East St Mary people can sure seh Dr Dunn will get the job done.

“Mi not talking about politics, this a nuh politics time; we want betterment in South East St Mary. This a nuh politics because when we put up Dr Dunn if him nuh get the job done we the people of South East St Mary will take him down back. We nuh die-hearted, we naah talk offa nuh JLP, we naah talk offa nuh PNP, we waah people fi help South East St Mary. The work weh we want to see gwaan in South East St Mary Dr Dunn has started that work already. Mi nuh think, mi sure seh Dr Dunn a go defeat Dr Green by a landslide,” Foster said.