Can the Economic Growth Council deliver growth for Jamaica?
In the context of Brexit and the slowdown in the global economy, the formation of the Economic Growth Council by the Andrew Holness-led Administration may have come at a good time. At any given time, such councils, if properly conceptualised and allowed to function, can be good elixirs in stimulating economic growth.
One must admit that when one heard of the Government’s plan, one’s first thought and hope was that this would not be another “top-down” group of economic czars who believe they are best placed to solve the economic problems of Jamaica. One’s second concern was that such growth councils tend to be bedevilled by a notion that grand projects can be the panacea that a young, struggling economy like Jamaica’s needs to thrive. Nothing could be further from the truth.
One well remembers the Rockefeller Commission that was appointed by President Reagan which was supposed to help the newly elected and fledgling Jamaica Labour Party Government under former Prime Minister Edward Seaga to move Jamaica from “Third World to First”. This initiative, including the Caribbean Basin Initiative, sputtered and died like the People’s National Party’s “JEEP” of a later era. They did not help to move Jamaica’s economic dial in any significant direction. Any success at growing the economy in that period (1980-1989) was more due to the common sense application of economic principles by the Seaga Administration, which saw an average of five per cent growth over the period. Some foreign direct investments came, but not in the waves anticipated by the much-ballyhooed Rockefeller Commission and Reagan gentility.
If grandiose projects, by themselves, could propel a country to stratospheric economic growth, why for the past 10 years and counting has the American economy been limping at an anaemic two per cent growth? Part of the answer lies in the fact that the real economy, located on Main Street, has been starved of capital while the big companies on Wall Street, that have been sucking on the teats of the Federal Reserves, are flush with cheap and easy money.
Small businesses are the backbone of a thriving economy, and if they are neglected and strung up by mindless regulations and lack of capital, they cannot make the contribution they ought to GDP growth. If there is not robust growth in small enterprises the economy cannot take off. This, to me, is basic economic sense.
It is not surprising that the labour participation rate among men of prime working age has dropped more in the USA in the past 25 years than in any other country, with the exception of Italy, in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The US job market is soft, as millions remain unemployed and unemployable due to incarceration, low skills and the expanding digital divide. Many who are employed are in mediocre jobs. Many of those who are employed, and who form the bulk of the middle class, have not had a real wage increase in 40 years. And Brexit has just come to add salt to injury.
You can see the worrying trends in an economy when there is a decline in the use of the earth-moving “Yellow and green monsters” of Caterpillar and John Deere. There has been a dramatic fall-off in the sale of Caterpillar equipment. Sales have fallen for the 42nd month in a row. Meanwhile, again with the onset of the “Brexit syndrome”, the Federal Reserve, having used up all the tools in its monetary toolbox, will be in serious quandary in staving off the next financial collapse that is breathing down its neck. Meanwhile, the recalcitrant and hopeless gangs in Congress dither and have not lifted a finger to help the ailing economy, especially over the past three years.
I say all this to alert the Economic Growth Council to be cautious of what belief it may have in guaranteeing the five per cent growth it anticipates in the next four years. Furthermore, it is to warn of any vaunted belief it may have in grand projects to procure this growth without reference to the role of small businesses and the Small and Medium-sized Enterprises in this initiative for growth.
Why, for example, is someone like Yaneek Page, one of Jamaica’s most dynamic young entrepreneurs not on the council? One would think that someone who is at the cutting edge of youthful entrepreneurial activity in Jamaica would be invited to be part of this kind of initiative. Where is the voice of the youth? Are they too “broke” to contribute?
A further word of caution must be considered with regard to the assumed role of the Jamaican Diaspora in this project. There seems to be a universal thinking that members of the Jamaican Diaspora have a duty to be patriotic to their country and can be called upon to invest robustly in Jamaica’s future.
The Economic Growth Council would be well advised of the extent to which it may subscribe to this notion. My experience of the Diaspora, especially in the USA, indicates a mixed bag of patriotism, reticence, caution, and downright revulsion when it comes to doing business with Jamaica. The crime problem that plagues the country continues to be a major driver of this reticence and revulsion. Of equal merit is the bureaucratic headache of doing business in Jamaica. What should be simple things like opening a bank account, or any other account for that matter, become major exercises in frustration. When you deal with government departments you have to ensure that you have an adequate supply of Excedrin or other pain medication at the end of the day. Over the years we have developed a penchant in Jamaica where we make the simple the victim of the complex. This is reflected in the low productivity index of the Jamaican working population — one of the lowest in the Caribbean. And this is not going to change any time soon.
Sometimes Jamaicans, in dealing with members of the Diaspora, tend to regard them as arrogant. One cannot say that this isn’t the case for some in the Diaspora as there are those who do have a chip on their shoulder, having lived in “Farin”. But sometimes what is described as arrogance is revulsion at the shoddy and time-wasting approaches to doing business. Living in First-World societies, people get used to having their businesses transacted expeditiously. Time really is money, and they have learnt to adapt to this culture of things being done.
Consequently, there is impatience at the snail-like approach that they meet, both in the private and public sectors of the country. There are some organisations, including the National Land Agency, that are bucking the trend and offering great service. But there is a pervasive culture of indolence and nonchalance that permeates the government bureaucracy and which militates against the kind of growth expected by the Michael Lee Chin-headed council. Daryl Vaz has his work cut out for him at the Ministry of Economic Growth.
This column wishes the growth council well. Lee Chin is well-intentioned as I am sure are the other members of the council. But they should be disabused of any starry-eyed expectation that they can move mountains. The more their noses are on the ground, and not sniffing the air, the more they will see the problems that reside at the bottom of the ills that plague the Jamaican economy.
Dr Raulston Nembhard is a priest and social commentator. Send comments to the Observer orstead6655@aol.com.