Amid recurring global supply chain challenges and growing concerns for food security, some local stakeholders have said that supplies remain relatively safe as the country looks to feed itself this year.

In the wake of the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) recent release of its food price index which shows global prices for commodities like grain and vegetable oils recording their highest on record last year, largely due to the Russia/Ukraine invasion, key stakeholders locally have suggested that supplies remain relatively safe and sustained as key sectors ramp up their production.

Against a backdrop of the challenges which for many developing nations that heavily rely on imports, have led to critical disruptions in key inputs and some food supplies resulting in higher inflation, poverty and food insecurity which has also caused some countries to become more susceptible to shocks, the stakeholders have expressed measured optimism, holding on to the belief that key industries will continue to deliver, even if, moderately so.

According to president of the Jamaica Manufacturers and Exporters Association (JMEA) John Mahfood, in the context of reduced shipping cost (which are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year), improved logistic situations and tempered inflation rate (which up to November of last year measured at 0.4 per cent and was among the lowest last year) — the projection is for the productive sector to grow and with no major shortages.

“I’m expecting a much better year in 2023 when compared to 2022 for manufacturers in the country as a whole. I also do not foresee any major increases in prices for some inputs despite the continued Russia/Ukraine war even though until this war is resolved consumers will have to continue in facing the higher prices for products such as breads, pastas and the like, as these are not likely to come down immediately. As it stands, we have not suffered from any shortages of these products to any great extent and I don’t see any further tightening of supplies but just expect them to remain tight and with prices remaining at current levels,” he said in an interview with the Jamaica Observer on Monday.

The JMEA head, however, said that with the full resumption of major industries such as tourism and entertainment now in effect, what he was more concerned about is the growing problem of labour shortages which seems to be affecting many sectors and could negatively impact the ability to produce.

“The bigger risk that I see is finding enough staff to support the growing economy. There are challenges now in finding staff and that will continue throughout 2023 unless the Government is able to get the agencies such as HEART to perform at a much higher level in turning out trained people for industries. This is one problem on the horizon which, though it won’t stop the growth, will certainly cause it to be much slower if companies can’t expand sufficiently because of labour shortage,” he further said, noting that while the problem was not a short-term fix, greater investment was definitely needed in education to ensure that pupils can graduate with the basic skills sets needed in the various sectors.

“We have a very low level of people graduating from high school with the requisite education and we don’t have enough people being turned out by HEART to support the needs of manufacturers and this is something we need to address if we are going to readily have people available to support the sustenance of industries and the commodities they produce as well as the growth of the economy,” he added.

In the meanwhile, he said that his sector in dealing with the potential shortfalls and in keeping production levels up has had to contend with salary increases to engage more persons across the skilled labour force.

“I, however, remain optimistic and look towards a much better year for Jamaicans. I also don’t foresee the United States going into a recession; however, if they do that would be the foremost concern which would significantly affect us since we are heavily dependent on them for support as a country,” Mahfood said.

For president of the Jamaica Agricultural Society (JAS) Lenworth Fulton, if the country is to find itself in a much better place this year, government must move to tackle some key issues particularly those focused on reducing imports and becoming less dependent on foreign inputs.

Lauding the growth of the agriculture sector which has continued to be consistent in its output over the last few quarters, growing by as much as 17 per cent between July to September of 2022 — Fulton said that more could be done to take advantage of underutilised opportunities which may yield even higher results.

“I think we will continue to see growth and will not be worst off… we, however, need to focus more on some of the low-hanging fruits including our banana and plantain industries and try to develop new projects and programmes as we try to secure greater investment in these areas,” he told the Business Observer, indicating that most of the growth in agriculture currently experienced have been coming from roots and tubers such as Irish potato, sweet potato, cassava, yams as well as some fruits and vegetables.

For the way forward, he called for collective action and more strategising among the solutions needed, which he believes should be largely led by the Ministry of Agriculture.

“We’re now at a stage which calls for a transfer of knowledge and implementation of key policies and that’s where I would like us to go in 2023. The knowledge is there and research on the issues exist, but we now need to use them to our full benefit. With some reports indicating a rise in starvation, even in parts of the Caribbean, we need to take a different approach to some areas of production to ensure we can harvest maximum yields,” Fulton stated.

In a global response, the World Bank through its International Finance Corporation (IFC), in light of the worsening crisis, has committed approximately US$30 billion in funds through its global food security platform through which it will, over the next 15 months, continue to mobilise collective action as it work with partners to build resilient food systems while improving food security issues across borders, especially in the countries deemed most vulnerable.

“The private sector has an essential role to play in alleviating food insecurity and in creating lasting solutions. By strengthening supply chains and ensuring that people have access to and can grow affordable food, this initiative will contribute to building resilient food systems in the most vulnerable regions,” IFC’s Managing Director Makhtar Diop said.