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GDP growth and Mas Joe’s unbalanced sheet
Jamaica's economic outlook is showing encouraging signs.
Columns
October 30, 2023

GDP growth and Mas Joe’s unbalanced sheet

The pursuit of economic growth for its own sake is a dangerous game, akin to a dog chasing its tail – circular and ultimately unfulfilling. It risks creating a society in which numbers thrive, but people do not, in which the balance sheet is rich, but the quality of life is poor.

Jamaica’s economic outlook is showing encouraging signs, with several key metrics indicating a robust recovery and sustainable growth. For the second quarter of 2023 the country saw a 1.5 per cent increase in its gross domestic product (GDP) compared to the same quarter in the previous year. This positive development was announced by Dr Wayne Henry, the director general of the Planning Institute of Jamaica, during an online press event held on August 17, 2023.

In addition, recent assessments from international credit agencies have been promising. On October 18, 2023, Moody’s Investors Service elevated Jamaica’s long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings from B2 to B1, while revising the country’s economic outlook from stable to positive. This follows an upgrade in September by Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings, which improved Jamaica’s long-term foreign and local currency issuer default rating from B+ to BB-. This is the most favourable credit rating Jamaica has received from Standard & Poor’s since they began evaluating the country in 1999.

Moreover, fiscal indicators are strong. The Government is expected to have a budget surplus of about $10 billion or 0.3 per cent of GDP for the current fiscal year ending in March 2024. On the debt front, Jamaica has been successful in reducing its debt-to-GDP ratio to 78 per cent in 2022, down from 110 per cent in 2020, and is on track to lower it further. Also notable is the expected reduction in Government’s interest burden, which is likely to decline to 17.5 per cent of Government revenues by fiscal 2024, and even further by 2026.

There is more good news, in terms of financing and prospects. The Government’s estimated financing needs for the year are expected to be fully met through a mix of primarily concessional international funding and domestic borrowing. Additionally, if the economy continues its upward trajectory in line with peer countries, further upgrades in credit ratings could be on the horizon. Overall, these developments bode well for Jamaica’s economic stability and future growth, indicating that the country is moving in a positive direction.

While Jamaica’s economic indicators paint a picture of recovery and growth, the reality for the average Jamaican like Mas Joe remains complicated. Simply put, the dilemma lies in the disconnection between macroeconomic progress and the lived experiences of Mas Joe and other ordinary citizens. The impressive growth numbers are not trickling down to improve the quality of life for the broader population. In essence, while the country’s balance sheet looks increasingly promising, Mas Joe and many households are having difficulty balancing their income and expenses.

A Well-Being Economy

The question now is: How can the country ensure that this economic upswing benefits everyone and not just a select few?

The GDP growth and improved credit ratings ought to create opportunities for increased public and private investment in sectors that directly impact people’s daily lives. Infrastructure development, educational reform, health-care improvements, and job creation in sectors outside of tourism and natural resources could provide more holistic and sustainable economic development.

But this calls for a concerted effort from policymakers to shift focus from purely economic indicators to a broader range of metrics that account for well-being and quality of life. Such an approach could include implementing a well-being economy model that factors in social and environmental metrics alongside economic ones. Without this broader perspective, Jamaica risks perpetuating a cycle in which economic gains are concentrated at the top, doing little to alleviate the struggles that Mas Joe and his family face daily.

A well-being economy goes beyond the one-dimensional focus on GDP and integrates social and environmental metrics. It considers factors like income equality, access to health care and education, and environmental sustainability as integral components of national success. For Mas Joe, this would mean that his Government is actively concerned with not just increasing national revenue but also with improving his access to well-paying jobs, quality health care, affordable housing, and a decent standard of living.

One of the central tenets of a well-being economy is the equitable distribution of resources and opportunities. Traditional economic models often result in wealth accumulating at the top, widening the gap between the wealthy and the ordinary citizens. In a well-being economy, policies are designed to ensure that Mas Joe benefits from economic gains, perhaps through progressive tax systems, increased minimum wages, or subsidised health care and education that are funded by the wealth generated through economic growth.

Another advantage is the focus on long-term sustainability, both economically and environmentally. Prosperity should not come at the expense of future generations. Incorporating sustainability into the economic model ensures that Mas Joe not only benefits today but also leaves a viable country for his children and grandchildren.

What gets measured gets managed. Introducing well-being metrics alongside traditional economic indicators can create a more comprehensive dashboard for the Jamaican Government and the governments in the regions. For Mas Joe, this means that the Government would monitor and address issues that directly impact his life, such as unemployment rates in his community, the quality of local schools, and even community health outcomes. A well-being economy recognises the value of community and social connections, which are vital but often overlooked aspects of individual and national well-being. By focusing on policies that strengthen communities and foster social cohesion the Government can address the often intangible, yet deeply felt, aspects of Mas Joe’s quality of life.

By adopting a well-being economy framework, Jamaica has the opportunity to redefine success in a way that includes the well-being of all its citizens, ensuring that the economic tide truly does lift all boats. Such an approach would make certain that the impressive growth figures and credit ratings are not just numbers on paper that benefit the rich and well-to-do but translates into a better, more prosperous life for Mas Joe and all Jamaicans.

Dr Henry Lewis Jr is an associate professor at University of Technology, Jamaica, in the School of Humanities and Social Sciences. He is also a social scientist and executive life coach. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or hjlewis@utech.edu.jm.

Henry Lewis Jr

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