ASTANA, Kazakhstan (AFP) — Azerbaijani and US officials believe a Russian surface-to-air missile caused the deadly crash of an Azerbaijani passenger jet, media reports and a US official said Thursday, as the Kremlin cautioned against “hypotheses” over the disaster.

The Azerbaijan Airlines jet crashed near the Kazakh city of Aktau, an oil and gas hub, on Wednesday after going off course for undetermined reasons.

Thirty-eight of the 67 people on board died.

The Embraer 190 aircraft was supposed to fly northwest from the Azerbaijani capital Baku to the city of Grozny in Chechnya, southern Russia, but instead diverted far off course across the Caspian Sea.

An investigation is underway, with pro-government Azerbaijani website Caliber citing unnamed officials as saying they believed a Russian missile fired from a Pantsir-S air defence system downed the plane.

The claim was also reported by The New York Times, broadcaster Euronews and the Turkish news agency Anadolu.

Some aviation and military experts said the plane might have been accidentally shot by Russian air defence systems because it was flying in an area where Ukrainian drone activity had been reported.

A former expert at France’s BEA air accident investigation agency said there appeared to be “a lot of shrapnel” damage on the wreckage.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, he said the damage was “reminiscent” of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, which was downed with a surface-to-air missile by Russia-backed rebels over eastern Ukraine in 2014.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters: “It would be wrong to make any hypotheses before the investigation’s conclusions.”

– Shrapnel strikes reported –
Euronews cited Azerbaijani government sources as saying that “shrapnel hit the passengers and cabin crew as it exploded next to the aircraft mid-flight”.

A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, also said early indications suggested a Russian anti-aircraft system struck the plane.

Kazakhstan news agency Kazinform cited a regional prosecutor as saying that two black-box flight recorders had been recovered.

Azerbaijan Airlines initially said the plane flew through a flock of birds, before withdrawing the statement.

Kazakh officials said 38 people had been killed and there were 29 survivors, including three children.

Jalil Aliyev, the father of flight attendant Hokume Aliyeva, told AFP that this was supposed to have been her last flight before starting a job as a lawyer for the airline.

“Why did her young life have to end so tragically?” the man said in a trembling voice before hanging up the phone.

Eleven of the injured are in intensive care, the Kazakh health ministry said.

– Day of mourning –
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev declared Thursday a day of mourning and cancelled a planned visit to Russia for an informal summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), a grouping of former Soviet nations.

“I extend my condolences to the families of those who lost their lives in the crash… and wish a speedy recovery to the injured,” Aliyev said in a social media post Wednesday.

The Flight Radar website showed the plane deviating from its normal route, crossing the Caspian Sea and then circling over the area where it eventually crashed near Aktau, on the eastern shore of the sea.

Kazakhstan said the plane was carrying 37 Azerbaijani passengers, six Kazakhs, three Kyrgyz and 16 Russians.

– Bloodied survivors –
A Kazakh woman told the local branch of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) she was near where the plane crashed and rushed to the site to help survivors.

“They were covered in blood. They were crying. They were calling for help,” said the woman, who gave her name as Elmira.

She said they saved some teenagers.

“I’ll never forget their look, full of pain and despair,” said Elmira. “A girl pleaded: ‘Save my mother, my mother is back there’.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone conversation with Aliyev and “expressed his condolences in connection with the crash”, Peskov told a news conference.