HAVANA, Cuba (AFP) — A Russian oil tanker under US sanctions is scheduled to arrive in Cuba on Monday, challenging a de facto American fuel blockade of the energy-starved island, shipping data shows.

The
Anatoly Kolodkin, which is carrying 730,000 barrels of crude, was north of Haiti on Sunday as it headed towards the port of Matanzas in western Cuba, according to maritime analytics firm Kpler.

Cuba lost its main regional ally and oil supplier in January when US forces captured Venezuela’s socialist leader Nicolas Maduro.

US President Donald Trump subsequently threatened to impose tariffs on any country sending oil to Cuba and has mused about “taking” the communist-ruled island.

Jorge Pinon, an expert on Cuba’s energy sector at the University of Texas at Austin, said he was surprised the United States did not try to intercept the Russian tanker before it got so close to Cuba.

“I think now the chances that the United States will try to stop her have basically disappeared,” Pinon told
AFP, though he added that it was difficult to assess what the White House might do.

Once the boat enters Cuban waters, he said, it “is almost impossible for the US Government to stop it”.

The Cuban Government says it has not received any oil since January, deepening an energy crisis in the country of 9.6 million people.

President Miguel Diaz-Canel imposed emergency measures to conserve fuel, including strict rationing of gasoline.

Fuel prices have soared, public transport has dwindled, and some airlines have suspended flights to Cuba, hitting the country’s fragile economy.

Cubans have endured regular outages as its aging power plants struggle to meet demand, with seven nationwide blackouts since 2024, including two this month.

The
Anatoly Kolodkin, which is under US sanctions, was loaded with oil in the Russian port of Primorsk on March 8.

It was escorted by a Russian navy ship across the English Channel, but the two vessels split when the tanker entered the Atlantic, according to the British Royal Navy.

Another ship that was reportedly carrying Russian diesel to Cuba, the Hong Kong-flagged Sea Horse, arrived in Venezuela instead earlier this week.

Once the
Anatoly Kolodkin’s crude arrives in Cuba it would take about 15-20 days to process the oil and another 5-10 days to deliver its refined products, Pinon said.

“The urgent need today in Cuba is diesel,” the former oil executive said.

The Russian shipment could be converted into 250,000 barrels of diesel, enough to cover the country’s demand for around 12.5 days, according to Pinon.

Pinon said the Government would have to decide whether to use the fuel for backup power generators or for the buses, tractors, and trains needed to keep the economy going for two weeks.

“If you are Diaz-Canel or somebody making the decision, you go, ‘OK, where where do I go with that diesel?’ “ he said.

“Do I want to generate more electricity so there are less apagones (blackouts)? Or do I want it put it in the transportation sector?”