KINGSTON, Jamaica—The Meteorological Service of Jamaica (Met Service) says it is actively monitoring emerging climate patterns indicating the expected development of an El Niño phenomenon, which could influence rainfall and temperature conditions across the island in the coming months.

The Met Service, in a press release on Wednesday, said while Jamaica experienced above-average rainfall across much of the traditional dry season between January and April 2026, recent observations have shown a shift toward warmer and drier conditions in several areas of the country.

“Current climate indicators suggest the likely emergence of a major El Niño event during the year. Historically, such events have been associated with reduced rainfall across parts of the Caribbean region and increased temperatures, creating conditions that can elevate the risk of drought and heat-related impacts,” the Met Service said.

It said that, should current projections materialise, Jamaica could experience reduced rainfall activity during the summer period and in the lead-up to the primary rainfall season peaking in October. Such conditions may present challenges for water resources, agriculture and broader environmental systems, including increased heat stress affecting crops and livestock.

The Meteorological Service said it should continue to assess these developments through ongoing climate analysis, forecasting models and collaboration with regional and international partners to ensure the country remains informed and prepared.

Principal Director of the Meteorological Service of Jamaica, Evan Thompson, said the agency is closely tracking the evolving conditions and will continue to provide timely guidance to stakeholders and the public.

“We have observed a reduction in rainfall activity alongside increasing temperatures across sections of the island, and our team continues to closely monitor the developing El Niño conditions. While there remains some uncertainty regarding the strength and progression of the event, we are maintaining heightened vigilance and will continue to provide timely updates as more information becomes available,” Thompson said.

The Ministry of Water, Environment and Climate Change is encouraging Jamaicans to remain informed through official weather advisories and to continue practising responsible water use and preparedness measures.

As a result of this development, the Met Service said the National Drought Management Committee has also been activated and is slated to meet within the next 10 days.