DESPITE a prediction by meteorologists that the upcoming Atlantic Hurricane Season, which begins on June 1 and ends on November 30, may produce fewer storms than average, Jamaicans are being warned against complacency.

The warning came from manager for climate services at the Meteorological Services of Jamaica Jacqueline Spence-Hemmings, who was giving an update on the projections for the Hurricane Season at the National Disaster Risk Management Council meeting on Wednesday at the Office of the Prime Minister.

Reiterating that there is a 55 per cent expectation of below-normal activity estimated for the season, Spence-Hemmings noted, “Below-normal does not mean get complacent.”

She pointed to Hurricane Melissa, which ravaged sections of the island last October and underscored that “if Melissa has taught us anything, it is that we only need one”.

Spence-Hemmings pointed out that even a below normal season may result in the occurrence of multiple hazards such as drought, higher temperatures, dry conditions, and the possibility of storms and flooding.

“We know that we begin in June and we see that the Gulf of Mexico to the coastline of the United States… That’s where we would see most activity. Going to July, we see this activity spreading out further into the Caribbean where you could even have it extending out to the eastern Caribbean chain. And then August, where the activity really picks up is when the entire Atlantic Basin gets involved, be it weather storms or hurricanes developing. September, of course, continues with the activity. And October, we see that it is now winding down, and to November,” said Spence-Hemmings.

In explaining the contributing factor for this year’s prediction, Hemmings noted that the El Niño — a climate phenomenon characterised by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean — is expected to intensify during the hurricane season as the chances of it emerging has increased to 81 per cent.

El Niño conditions tend to suppress the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes, while warmer ocean temperatures and low winds support a more active season.

“It is expected to intensify during the hurricane season, and it normally affects the number of systems we see forming during the season,” Spence-Hemmings stated.

She noted that in past El Niño events, including 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024, Jamaica saw a significant reduction in rainfall amounts, especially in the primary rainfall season of August, September, October.

“What happens is that when that warming occurs in the Pacific, it changes the dynamics in the Atlantic and results in us getting subsidence or downward air in the Atlantic, which results in more drought, less rainfall and hotter conditions. And it normally affects the frequency or rather the number of systems we see forming during the season..

“The expectation is that eight to 14 main storms could form. Three to six of those could become hurricanes. And one to three, major hurricanes. However, an average season for context would give you about 14 main storms, seven becoming hurricanes, and three major hurricanes,” Spence-Hemmings explained.