BRIDGETOWN, Barbados (CMC) — The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) says strengthening El Niño conditions and steadily warming Caribbean waters are expected to intensify heat, prolong drought in parts of the region, and increase the risk of flooding from heavy rainfall during the remainder of the wet season.

El Niño is a climate pattern where the surface water in the tropical Pacific Ocean becomes much warmer than usual. This warming changes the winds globally and disrupts normal weather patterns, causing extreme events like heavy rainfall, droughts and heatwaves.

In its latest Caribbean Climate Outlooks released Thursday, the Barbados-based climate agency said the conditions could imply increasingly intense humid heat into the peak of the heat season in September, culminating in recurrent heatwaves, especially in the far north.

CariCOF also forecast irregular Atlantic hurricane activity through August, followed by a likely reduction in peak season activity during September.

The outlook warned that lingering drought conditions in the Lesser Antilles are expected to ease more slowly than usual through September, while rainfall frequency across much of the region is also projected to increase at a slower pace than in most years.

It warned that the expected occurrence of excessive rainfall events will lead to “high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts”.

“Intrusions of dusty Saharan air will likely be frequent, inhibiting tropical cyclone activity, but exacerbating humid heat and deteriorating air quality,” it added.

CariCOF said that up to the month of September, the potential for flooding, flash floods, related hazards and compound or cascading impacts due to excessive rains will be high to extremely high in most areas except the Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao (ABC) Islands.

It also warned that water recharge in rivers and reservoirs is likely to be slower than normal in Belize and the Antilles, while fewer wet days through August will delay soil moisture recovery, limit rainfall disruptions to outdoor activities and only gradually reduce wildfire risk.

As of June 1 this year, severe or worse, short-term drought has developed in southwest Tobago and western Barbados with long-term drought being recorded in easternmost Cuba, Grenada, easternmost Guadeloupe, southwest Jamaica, Martinique, southwest Puerto Rico, St Lucia, St Vincent, and southeast Suriname.

CariCOF said that agricultural drought is evolving in St Lucia and might possibly develop or continue in the ABC Islands, Eastern Cuba,  Dominica, Grenada, the Leeward Islands, Martinique and Tobago.