JAMAICA’S national conversation about development often hinges on a simple question: Are things getting better? It is the right question, but no longer enough. With fewer than five years until 2030 we must also ask whether progress is fast, broad, and durable enough to reach all Jamaicans.

The warning lights are flashing. The Sustainable Development Report 2026 finds that only 16 per cent of SDG targets are on track, while developing countries face a financing gap exceeding US$4 trillion. Global foreign investment rose six per cent to US$1.6 trillion in 2025, but the recovery was fragile and uneven. Investment in Jamaica increased, yet inflows across Caribbean small island developing states fell two per cent to about US$7 billion. Climate shocks, expensive finance, and scarce public funds demand smarter investment.

This month, Jamaica presented its third Voluntary National Review at the United Nations High-Level Political Forum. It is more than an international report card. It is an opportunity to ask what is obstructing the next wave of progress and what Jamaica can do now to accelerate it.

Our research on productive capacities and SDG convergence offers answers. We studied 193 countries over 25 years to determine whether those starting behind were catching up, how quickly, and why. We examined the capabilities that turn plans and financing into better lives: people and institutions, energy, digital and transport systems, productive firms, natural resources, and movement into higher-value activities.

The first finding is encouraging: Countries with lower SDG performance are catching up, yet progress is often slowest in the middle of the productive-capacity range. Poorer countries can make rapid gains by expanding electricity, Internet access, education, and vaccination. Advanced economies benefit from mature systems and strong coordination. Countries in the middle may face a ‘capacity paradox’ — they have exhausted the easiest gains but their systems are not sufficiently integrated to make the next leap.

The slowdown becomes visible when graduates’ skills do not match available jobs, trained workers migrate, digital access remains unequal, power grids cannot absorb renewable energy, public bodies work in silos, or promising firms lack financing.

Investment in one area may disappoint if related weaknesses persist. Development is not a shopping list; the order and combination of actions matter.

Second, Jamaica’s performance masks sharp disparities: Jamaica exceeded global averages in poverty reduction, gender equality and partnerships but lagged in reducing inequality and in protecting life on land and below water. Health, education, energy, industry and cities were close to global averages. A country can reduce poverty without widely sharing opportunity, or improve social outcomes while degrading the forests, coasts and marine resources on which livelihoods, food security and tourism depend. Such gains may not last.

Jamaica’s productive capacity shows a similar pattern. The overall level is close to the global average yet private sector strength is well below the international benchmark, and the economy has been slow to shift toward more productive activities. Firms that struggle to finance innovation and reach larger markets cannot drive transformation, while a slow-changing economy makes it harder for dynamic firms to emerge.

Third, investing in people offers the broadest path to faster progress. Weaknesses in skills and human development appear to be slowing gains in poverty reduction, health, education, clean energy, innovation, and sustainable cities. Jamaica must improve learning, align technical and tertiary programmes with employers’ changing needs, strengthen digital and problem-solving skills, support continuous training, and give skilled Jamaicans stronger reasons to build their futures at home. The Diaspora offers knowledge, networks, and investment, not only remittances.

Energy and digital capacity are also pivotal. Further gains require more than generation, this needs a modern, resilient grid; storage; faster integration of renewables; effective regulation; and affordable, reliable service. Digital investment can accelerate poverty reduction, clean energy, and industrial innovation, provided Jamaica closes rural and income-based access gaps, strengthens cybersecurity and data protection, modernises public services, and helps firms reach wider markets.

These priorities cannot be separated from inequality and nature. Skills programmes should reach poorer communities. Energy reform should reduce costs and vulnerability. Business support should help smaller firms enter supply chains. Growth in tourism, agriculture, mining, and infrastructure must protect the land and sea that sustain the economy.

Government must organise delivery around bottlenecks, not isolated projects. Identify the capability holding back progress, then combine responses: connect training with business finance, renewable generation with grid upgrades, or digital access with regulation and support for firms. Tie budgets and external finance to measurable results, review progress regularly, and change course when an intervention fails. Every dollar should remove more than one obstacle and advance more than one national goal.

Development partners must also recognise that upper-middle-income status does not erase the costs of climate vulnerability, small size, or economic transition. Affordable, long-term finance should address clear development bottlenecks, not average income alone.

Jamaica does not lack plans or ambition but the time to achieve the 2030 targets is short, and fragmented implementation is unaffordable. Every major investment should show which obstacles it removes; which goals it advances; what complementary action it requires, who benefits, and when results should appear. Jamaica still has ‘many rivers to cross’. This research shows where currents slow us down and where strong bridges can be built. Progress is possible, but speed must now be a deliberate national policy choice.

Authors: Nadine McCloud is a professor of applied econometrics in the Department of Economics at The University of the West Indies, Mona campus. Stuart Davies, PhD, is the senior economist at the UN Resident Coordinator’s Office in Jamaica, covering Jamaica, The Bahamas, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, and Turks and Caicos.

Professor Nadine McCloud.