The warning by Haitian politician Mr André Michel that, without a minimum level of security, “armed gangs will win the elections” set for later this year, may strike some as alarmist. But it would be a mistake for Haiti’s political leaders and the international community to dismiss it merely because the language is stark.

Mr Michel is making a fundamental point: Elections are meaningful only when citizens are sufficiently free and secure to participate in them. Haiti has, for far too long, endured without a functioning democratic mandate. The country has not held national elections since 2016, and the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in 2021 deepened an already profound political and institutional crisis.

The scheduled December 13 elections therefore represent an opportunity that Haiti simply cannot afford to squander.

The stated determination of Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé that elections will take place this year, “no matter what”, is welcome. So too is the decision by the Provisional Electoral Council to publish the final list of approved political groups. After years of transition, uncertainty, and political paralysis, Haitians deserve the opportunity to choose their leaders and begin restoring constitutional government.

But an election conducted while armed gangs effectively control major roads and intimidate communities would risk becoming a hollow exercise. Mr Michel is right to insist that the national highways must be made accessible and that a basic level of security is indispensable. The objective cannot simply be to put ballots into boxes; Haitians must be able to reach polling stations, cast their votes without fear, and believe that the result reflects their choices.

The three-day visit by the Organisation of American States (OAS) and Caricom delegation, led by OAS Secretary General Albert Ramdin and including Caricom Secretary General Dr Carla Barnett, is therefore important. Its mission must go beyond expressions of solidarity. Haiti needs coordinated action on security, elections, humanitarian assistance, and institutional recovery.

Above all, the Gang Suppression Force needs every reasonable measure of international support. Haiti cannot begin rebuilding while heavily armed gangs hold communities and vital routes to ransom, terrorise civilians, and undermine the authority of the State. The reported willingness of Germany to provide air transport, together with the planned deployment of personnel from Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean, is encouraging.

The goal should be to get the force fully operational as quickly as possible and give it the resources necessary to reclaim territory, protect humanitarian corridors, and restore the rule of law.

This is not simply Haiti’s problem. Prolonged instability in the country carries consequences well beyond its borders. Disorder fuels displacement, organised crime, trafficking, insecurity, and migration, placing additional pressure on neighbouring countries and regional institutions. Stability in Haiti is therefore in the wider Caribbean’s interest.

The hope must be that Haiti does go to the polls this year, and that Haitians can do so peacefully, freely, and without intimidation. A credible democratic process, backed by improved security and functioning institutions, can provide the legitimate foundation from which the country begins to recover.

Haiti needs security precisely so that democracy has a chance to survive.