If the 88-year-old People’s National Party (PNP) is to take back the keys to Jamaica House it will have to surmount eight big hurdles. This is a difficult feat.

The PNP was launched on September 18, 1938 at the Ward Theatre in Kingston by a group of Jamaicans, among them Osmond Theodore Fairclough, Howard Cook, Ken Hill, Alexander Bustamante, and Noel Nethersole.

Fairclough was the principal founder. Credible sources say Norman Washington Manley was named president at the launch. The choice of Manley was strategic. He was a prominent lawyer and Jamaican patriot. Manley served as PNP president until his retirement in 1969. Michael Manley, a son of Norman Manley, was elected PNP president on February 9, 1969. PJ Patterson was elected to head the PNP on March 28, 1992. Portia Simpson Miller was elected leader of the PNP on February 26, 2006. Dr Peter Phillips was elected to lead the PNP on March 26, 2017, and Mark Golding was elected PNP president on November 7, 2020.

The PNP is a socialist party. It has formed the Administration for 31 years across three separate periods since our political independence in 1962.

BIG HURDLES

#1: Society has changed

The PNP has to accept that society has changed significantly, but the PNP has not changed sufficiently to meet the needs of today’s Jamaica.

Ideological obsession is dead. Folks are now drawn to politics that delivers personal and tangible material gains. At the same time, a critical mass understands that uncosted goodies are impractical and will result in the crippling of the national economy.

Folks now understand that, “If it sounds too good to be true, it likely is.” ‘Samfie’ nah keep again. Scams are a dime a dozen these days, political ones included.

For many years politicians have made uncosted promises in order to win the keys to Jamaica House. Having got the keys, some have had to ruefully admit that their promised goodies could not be delivered. Why? There was just no money.

Folks no longer rely solely on the politicians to cost their promises. There is now widespread access to a tool that can do the maths for us. The trailer-load of uncosted promises which the PNP reeled off during the last general election tells me that its leadership doesn’t understand this new reality.

After three-straight general election defeats, and two successive local government election losses, the PNP still doesn’t get it that Jamaica is no longer “PNP country”. The days when folks were massively impressed with sloganeering are over. The days when a majority was captured by electric charisma have waned. The days when promises — or what most of us call “puss inna bag” — motivated a majority to vote for political representatives are done. The days when political leaders won elections by merely peddling ideologies — be it socialist, communist, or capitalist, especially through the conduits of performative rhetoric — are finished.

Folks today want material returns that better our lives and our children’s lives. The peddlers of ideologies have invariably left the majority holding the bag. The majority now sensibly wants our heaven on Earth.

Happily, factual information is available at the press of a button today. Most Jamaicans have a cellphone with access to the Internet. We are seeing in real time what is happening globally. Crumbs no longer entice most Jamaicans. Plus, we want a seat at the main table.

#2: Reinvigorated JLP

One of the many unique contributions of former Prime Minister Edward Seaga to the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) was the restoration of intellectual confidence to the party of Sir Alexander Bustamante. Seaga’s pragmatism surgically countered the flaws of Prime Minister Michael Manley’s utopian democratic socialism in the 1970s. Seaga’s confidence filtered to the ground. This fillip was one of the big reasons for the landslide victory of the JLP on October 30, 1980.

Understand this: One of Andrew Holness’s major pluses as JLP leader and prime minister is that he has reinvigorated and revitalised the 1960s/80s sleeping giant of the JLP’s winning mentality. I explained this critical fillip in my The Agenda column of November 4, 2017. I don’t believe the PNP understands the big impact of Seaga’s and Holness’s vital restorations in the JLP of today. JLP supporters at many levels now know how to defeat the PNP in the battle of ideas and rhetoric. The days when the PNP would pulverise the JLP intellectually are done. JLP supporters at many levels now have a big advantage in the arena of intellectual control.

One only needs to revisit the messaging in the run-up to the last general election to understand the strength of the JLP’s intellectual control at the time. I say at that time because the JLP’s intellectual control has waned since. That is for an upcoming piece. The JLP’s messaging in the run-up to the general election of September 3, 2025 stayed on the road while the PNP’s veered like a car out of control. The PNP’s left evidently did not know what its right hand was doing. I discussed this massive failure of the PNP in the run-up to the last general election and also in post-mortems.

A year after their third-straight general election defeat, I see very little evidence that the PNP understands the massive weight of the messaging millstone around their necks. Mark Golding’s PNP is a train that has left the station, but the passengers are not sure of its destination. Their penchant for smoke and mirrors is rapidly eating away at the limited reserves at 89 Old Hope Road.

The PNP’s stubborn embrace of the “wrong and strong” mentality is crippling the party, resulting in a flood of self-inflicted messaging blunders.

#3: PNP lacks leadership depth

At the top leadership levels, the PNP needs to rid itself of individuals and ideas that a majority of Jamaicans rejected long ago. As long as the PNP continues to embrace democratic socialism as its mainstay, yesterday is today at 89 Old Hope Road. And yesterday’s men and women will lead the PNP.

When a major political party continuously hits the rewind button it signals a serious famine of ideas and a stagnant talent pool.

The PNP is increasingly looking like a malice movement when it needs to look like a Government-in-waiting. A shortage of good talent is a major reason for this descent. The PNP urgently needs a cadre of leaders, in particular spokespersons, whose mere presence communicates confidence and competence before they say a single word. To achieve this crucial objective the PNP needs to open its windows and let in some fresh air.

PNP President Mark Golding

#4: Too ants, big problem

Someone famously said long ago that if you see two ants in your kitchen you don’t have a two-ant problem. The PNP has a massive ant problem. Its salespersons, especially on social media, are doing great damage to Osmond Theodore Fairclough’s party.

Many of the PNP’s bloggers are very odious. Mudslinging is their primary weapon. Incessant and provocative propaganda, pointless political slugging matches, fake news (lies), razzle-dazzle, theatrical deflections, wholesaling and retailing of conspiracy theories, character assassinations, drive-by shootings on people’s character, and performative politics on stilts make up their armaments.

I recently heard a leader in the PNP say only a few of the bloggers sometimes fly off the handle. They see two ants in the kitchen. John Public sees a massive ants problem. These ants have infested the PNP’s milk. These decadent bloggers are ticking time bombs.

Some may foolishly scream, “Higgins, the bloggers are effective — that is why you pour scorn on them.” If they are effective, why does the PNP keep losing? And why do they rely on lies?

#5: Almost, almost

Almost is never enough in the first-past-the-post electoral system that is used in Jamaica. A year after the last general election, some at the leadership level of the PNP are still consoling themselves that they almost won. Newsflash: the only person who gets a medal in our system is the one who goes across the finish line first. It’s simple.

Here is another dose of reality for those in the PNP who parrot the “almost won” line. In 2016 the PNP earned 433,735 votes (49.7 per cent) and secured 31 seats. The JLP received 436,972 votes (50.1 per cent) and won 32 seats. In the 2025 General Election, the PNP polled 401,398 votes (49.16 per cent) and won 28 seats. The JLP, after nine years in Government, amassed 412,705 votes (50.54 per cent) and secured 35 seats. In the 2025 General Election, the PNP’s share of the vote declined by 0.54 percentage points. The PNP won three seats fewer (about 10 per cent) than in 2016. The JLP’s vote share improved by 0.44 percentage points and its seat count rose by three (about 10 per cent). The 2020 plebiscite was an outlier.

Golding says the PNP has got back its mojo. He might be using an abacus.

#6: Opposing everything is not a winning strategy

No sane person expects excessive celebration of wins by the Administration. At the same time, an Opposition that is obsessed with calling down a plague of locusts puts itself into a lose-lose trap. Understand this: Being against everything is easy, but governing and the Opposition is part of government requires organisation, discipline, and compromise.

Building a political foundation on permanent fires carries a peculiar problem. Eventually the smoke will clear and discerning voters will start asking who started the fires? The PNP needs practical differentiation instead of its present obsession with grievance. Five years ago I said here that incessant attempts to draw political blood, specifically from Prime Minister Andrew Holness and key members of his Administration, have not only failed, they have failed miserably. Can the PNP build the financial, intellectual, and organisational machinery required to win Jamaica House? Politics is the art of the possible, it is said.

#7: Where’s the base?

The keys to Jamaica House were taken from the PNP 10 and a half years ago, but the PNP is still hiding out in the building. They refuse to accept their constitutional role as the main Opposition.

This delusional conduct is part and parcel of the belief that “Jamaica is PNP country”. The PNP is no longer the party of natural choice.

A long time ago I discussed here that the PNP’s base had dwindled because of a big diminution in class consciousness and ideological loyalty, among other things. In my piece here on March 10, 2024, I said: “Efforts by the PNP to replenish its base with younger people have not had great success in recent times. The JLP, on the other hand, has succeeded in expanding its base with young people. Several scientific polls have said so. I believe the JLP now has a slightly larger base than the PNP. At the same time, I think the results of elections in especially marginal seats, the majority of constituencies, are decided by undecided and first-time voters.”

The victory by the JLP in our most recent general election proves that I was right.

#8: Visionary needed

The PNP needs an authentic, visionary, and disciplined strategist. Mark Golding does not fit the bill, as I see it. Months ago I said here that, “Mark Golding should have followed the precedents of his predecessors, former Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller and Dr Peter Phillips, the first leader of one of our two major political parties not to have become prime minister, and resigned following the PNP’s last general election defeat, its third straight.”

These are key to smoother leadership transitions.

Do not ever overstay your welcome. Succession planning is vital. “Vaulting ambition” is dangerous.

Golding’s political future now hangs by a thread.

Garfield Higgins is an educator and journalist. Send comments to the Jamaica Observer or higgins160@yahoo.com