BANK of Jamaica (BOJ) Governor Brian Langrin says the central bank will examine recommendations from its own researchers for closer monitoring of food prices, but the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has not yet discussed the paper that proposed them.

The answer came at Tuesday’s press briefing, a day after the BOJ raised interest rates for the first time since November 2022. Food prices are a major reason the bank has become more concerned about inflation, but the research suggests policymakers sometimes wait too long to act on food-price increases because they expect them to ease on their own.

“We haven’t discussed it in the context of the MPC but everything that comes from our research department that has to do with monetary policy, we look at very closely,” Langrin said in response to a question about the paper.

The August working paper, previously examined by the Jamaica Observer, was written by BOJ economists Calvin Grant, Ashaud Shirley and Reneisha Craig. It studied the effects of global food, oil and alumina price shocks on Jamaica using data from June 2000 to March 2025. The authors found that global food-price increases produced a larger and more persistent effect on local inflation than oil-price increases, while oil shocks tended to prompt a faster monetary policy response.

Their concern was that policymakers might look past a food-price shock on the assumption that it would fade, only for its effects to spread and become harder to contain. The paper proposed more detailed tracking of different commodities, and a food-price monitoring arrangement involving the BOJ; the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining; and the Statistical Institute of Jamaica. Such monitoring, the authors argued, could help distinguish increases arriving from abroad from those intensified by local transport, distribution or other conditions.

The BOJ says drought and intensifying El Niño conditions have damaged local crop yields, particularly vegetables. Petrol prices have also risen as higher international commodity costs reach Jamaica. The working paper’s estimates relate to global food shocks — they do not measure the effect of this year’s local drought. But its recommendation addresses the difficulty of telling how different sources of food inflation may combine or persist.

Langrin said the bank is aware of the importance of food prices and is looking at options to strengthen surveillance and improve the data feeding into its decisions. He did not say whether it would establish the arrangement proposed by the researchers or when the MPC would assess their findings.

“It is a research paper; it isn’t a policy paper,” he said, adding that the bank had not “completely validated” it. BOJ working papers state that they are research in progress and that the authors’ views do not necessarily represent those of the bank, its management or board.

The governor’s response nevertheless comes as the MPC makes a judgment closely related to the one the researchers examined. The committee held its policy rate at 5.5 per cent in August when it considered the forces driving inflation largely temporary. It raised the rate to 6.0 per cent this week, after concluding that agricultural inflation and high energy and transport costs would persist longer and could begin influencing other prices and wage demands.

“Continuing to look through these shocks could allow temporary pressures to become entrenched,” Langrin said in his prepared statement.

Annual inflation rose to 7.9 per cent in August, above the BOJ’s 4.0 to 6.0 per cent target range. Core inflation, which excludes agricultural food and fuel, stood at 5.2 per cent. The BOJ said there are already limited signs that higher food and imported commodity costs are affecting processed food and selected services. It expects headline inflation to rise further before returning to target by mid-2027.

The research paper proposes more than collecting additional price data. Its authors suggest that the BOJ distinguish among food, oil and other commodity shocks when judging how quickly to respond, rather than treating them all as temporary disturbances with similar effects. They also call for further research separating imported food prices from domestic food prices — a distinction their model does not itself make.

Asked directly whether the BOJ would adopt the recommendation for wider food-price surveillance, Langrin gave no commitment. He said the bank considers research from across its departments and is continually examining ways to strengthen the information used in policy decisions.