The current Bill Johnson poll positions the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) way ahead of the People’s National Party (PNP) if an election were to be called now. Never mind the fact that Bill Johnson was wrong in his findings of the last election. I am fairly satisfied that what the polls are now showing is fairly accurate and that the JLP is in front at the present time. And, understandably, the JLP is upbeat as a result of the findings. But to my mind, the elections are too far off for any grand rejoicing.

Elections are won by organisation. Voters have to be canvassed during the enumeration exercise and on election day they have to be persuaded to go out and vote. I think that it is a very sorry state of affairs that issues do not play a greater part in determining elections in Jamaica. Be that as it may, this is the way things are, and I doubt if this will change in the near future.

A political party can have more money than another, but spends it wrongly and lose. This has happened many times in our political history in parliamentary and local government elections, as well as in by-elections at both levels. But money is still important to the parties to finance the organisation for elections.

In 1958, when the elections for the Federal Parliament of the West Indies were called, the PNP trailed the JLP and would have been the first one-term government in Jamaica’s history. The PNP, which was affiliated to the West Indies Federal Labour Party (WIFLP), won a majority of seats in the Federal Parliament, but only picked up five of the 17 seats in Jamaica. The West Indies Democratic Labour Party, to which the JLP was affiliated, won 12 of the 17 seats in Jamaica, although the DLP lost overall to the WIFLP.

Immediately following the poor showing of the PNP in the 1958 federal elections, the 23-year-old Percival Patterson was hired to do organising for the PNP in western Jamaica. When he, along with the other political organisers, reported back to their bosses that more PNP voters were on the voters list than JLP voters, Norman Manley called a snap election for July 28, 1959 and won ‘hands down’.

Norman Manley was no match for the charismatic Alexander Bustamante, so he had to be organised. The elder Manley certainly realised this after the massive PNP defeat of December 14, 1944 when he himself failed to win a seat. By the elections of December 1949 the PNP, although defeated again, received 3,510 votes more than the JLP. So although the PNP started off as the party of issues, for practical reasons, it became the party of organisation.

In 1955, when the JLP lost, Bustamante was still the most popular politician in Jamaica. And in 1980, when the PNP lost, Michael Manley was still the most popular politician in Jamaica. But, in 1980, the JLP was organised in a manner that no political party has ever before, or perhaps ever after. And, in 2007, when the PNP lost, Portia Simpson Miller was undoubtedly still the most popular politician in Jamaica.

The crawling peg devaluation of the early 1990s made the PNP led by Michael Manley most unpopular, and this was reflected in the opinion polls which were done quite regularly in those days. Despite the ‘Gang-of-five’ affair, by 1991 the JLP were ahead in the opinion polls and this continued even more so after P J Patterson was elected PNP president. And it did look like a one-term government for the PNP.

But by mid-1992, there was a serious internal rift in the JLP when Pearnel Charles claimed that he was hit by a bottle at the JLP conference that year, although other JLP insiders say it never happened. That disunity further divided whatever internal unity the JLP had left given the ‘Gang-of-five’ affair, and by December 1992 the PNP was ahead in the opinion polls. P J Patterson, as prime minister, took advantage of that, called elections a year early, on March 30, 1993, and the PNP won by a landslide.

In the words of Edward Seaga, when Bruce Golding formed the National Democratic Party in 1995, the JLP no longer had a split but a ‘split-off’. But it further divided the organisational effort of the JLP so the PNP won a third term on December 18, 1997. Shahine Robinson’s victory in the North East St Ann by-election for the JLP in March 2001 had the same effect of the JLP-DLP winning more seats than its PNP affiliate in the federal elections of 1958. P J asked two ministers of government to resign in order to do full-time organising so that the PNP came home for a fourth time on October 16, 2002, the third time with P J Patterson at the helm.

In 2007, I predicted an overwhelming victory for the JLP. I was cognisant that the PNP had been in power for 18 years, with most of the younger voters not knowing anything different and wanting a change. While the JLP did win, they only barely did so. It was then that I fully realised that elections are really won on election day. As, with a little more effort on the part of the PNP, they might have won a fifth straight term.

And throughout the entire campaign of 2011, when the pollsters had the JLP in front, what with their excellent strategy of choosing Andrew Holness as leader when Bruce Golding resigned, I said “elections are won on election day”. I asked if all those young people who were shouting ‘Andrew, Andrew, Andrew’ were on the voters’ list. And, as you know the PNP won, Portia Simpson Miller once again became prime minister and still is.

As I wrote earlier this year, I am personally happy that the PNP lost in 2007, because had the PNP won then and went on to win the election after that, they would now be in power for 25 consecutive years and that could never be good for Jamaica.

The fact that the Bill Johnson poll shows the JLP ahead will serve as an organisational guide to both major political parties. But it may be more of a guide to the PNP, who trails in the opinion polls, far more than it might be to the JLP who, up to now, have shown far less appreciation of the role of organisation in elections than does the PNP.

ekrubm765@yahoo.com