I have seen tempests, where the scolding winds

Have rived the knotty oaks, and I have seen

The ambitious ocean swell and rage and foam,

To be exalted with the threatening clouds.

– Shakespeare,Julius Caesar, 1, 3

There’s an old saying in Jamaica, “Young bud (bird) no know storm.” To wit, a young person has no experience of a storm, doesn’t know what to expect and may take it lightly. After the experience though, nobody, not young bird, middle age bird, or old fowl would take another hurricane lightly.

Prior to Hurricane Gilbert which devastated Jamaica and other countries, there were many young birds around, as many Jamaicans had no idea of the power of a serious hurricane. After all, the previous big one to hit us was Hurricane Charlie in 1951, long before many of us were born. I used to hear my parents talk about the destructive force of Hurricane Charlie, but talk is one thing, to experience it is another.

So Gilbert came and the rest is history. Nobody wanted to experience that onslaught again, never. But after Gilbert, almost every Jamaican dreaded the start of the hurricane season. “Bwoy, me nuh want to go through nutten like dat again.” Even a song was made about it,

Wild Gilbert, by Lovindeer.

When I saw that tropical depression form off the coast of Africa and started to move west, I had a bad feeling about it. Usually at this time of year, most of the hurricanes move further north, as did two a few weeks ago. So I told my wife, “Honey, watch that depression, I don’t like where it’s heading.”

Now, I have a deep interest in nature, I have subscribed to National Geographic Magazine for decades, I watch The Discovery Channel and

National Geographic Channel. I watch Storm Chasers and The Weather Channel. I love nature.

So when Hurricane Matthew moved west and was predicted by the scientific models to turn north, I was not a happy camper. A portion of my roof, at a different location, went flying during Gilbert, which was a Category Three hurricane. Matthew had reached Category Four in no time at all. This was no ordinary hurricane.

Our meteorological service issued timely advisories and the frenzy began here, as supermarkets had their usual gold rush. Shoppers stocked up on all the essentials and bum-rushed all the shops that they could.

T

T

he nation prayed like it never prayed before, and the word on the street was, “We cyaan manage no hurricane now, we cyaan manage.”

During all this, I tuned in to the foreign weather storm trackers on US TV, as over the years I have found them to be extremely accurate. I trust the scientific advice of people like Max Mayfield, now retired, but who spent decades as director of the US National Hurricane Center.

Now, hurricane prediction and the projected path is not an exact science, as breeze blows and changes direction when it sees fit. Hurricanes have been known to do strange things, including turning back. Hurricane Flora in 1963 did a loop-the-loop and impacted Cuba three times, as it did a complete 360-degree circle over the south-eastern end of the island.

But the foreign experts have several computer models that give a fairly accurate projected path of hurricanes nowadays. I have been watching them for years, and they’re always spot on. Then something fascinating happened, Matthew slowed its forward speed from 16 mph to seven mph and then to a crawl of four mph, barely walking pace as it turned north.

All the computer models had its projected path to take it between Jamaica and Haiti, then veering north-east to hit the Haitian peninsula directly. This eastern shift would be caused by a high-pressure ridge coming down from the USA.

When it did so, as predicted, I called my friends and told them, “Matthew is veering north-eastwards, away from Jamaica and towards Haiti.” It did exactly what the computer models said it would do. Mark you, it was a huge storm, so we would still feel the effects, mostly in the eastern parishes such as Portland, St Thomas and St Mary.

What I found strange was that despite this shift, our met office still insisted that the entire Jamaica, including as far away as Montego Bay and Negril, would be affected. How could this be? As I looked at the foreign experts, then our local experts, then back to the foreign experts, I saw a disconnect. What sources were our people getting their info from?

When I saw the satellite imagery I could see for myself where the outer bands of the hurricane would impact, and drew my own conclusion. We would be spared. Thank God. In fact, the USA experts exclaimed, “Jamaica has dodged the bullet as Matthew is headed towards Haiti and then on to Cuba and The Bahamas.”

Still, Matthew was moving slowly, and was in no hurry. Matthew was a no-hurry cane, but it was moving in the direction that the computer models predicted.

Listen, I am grateful and thankful to The Almighty for sparing us the wrath of this monster hurricane, but that does not mean that I cannot make some suggestions to our met office, which has come in for some harsh criticism.

This criticism stems from the fact that people now have access to international weather information on TV and computers that they watch avidly and trust. So when The Weather Channel says one thing and our met office says another, people become sceptical. Instead of taking a knee-jerk response and saying that people are ungrateful and should be thankful that the hurricane didn’t hit, they should listen.

Maybe they should use words like ‘maybe’ or ‘possibly’, but don’t tell people that the country is going to be badly affected, long after the storm has veered north-east and away from us. By then, the foreign reports were focusing on Haiti and stopped mentioning Jamaica. Even after the storm watch was lifted, our met office declared that we would still be affected for the next 36 hours. Instead, we had the best day ever, with the clearest blue sky and white clouds. That’s why people get peeved and criticise and trust the foreign experts more. Again, I thank God that we were spared.

For that storm to move north between us and Haiti, threading that needle, was nothing short of a miracle. Speaking of foreign press, many are such sensation seekers, sometimes creating excitement out of nothing. A US reporter based here kept showing the same shots of a flooded road with three guys pushing a stranded car, some waves pounding on the Palisadoes road and soldiers in a lorry. He kept on repeating these images. Another reporter on a US TV station kept saying how Jamaica was being battered by Hurricane Matthew. I walked outside to see if I was living in another Jamaica.

I must commend our security forces, police and military for doing a sterling job. When others were battening down for safety, they had to be out there making sure that things were secure. They have families too.

Speaking of families, mobility of persons can be so difficult. The reason why Cuba has perhaps the best record of low fatalities during hurricanes is because people are evacuated by the State with no backchat. Not here, as many Jamaicans refused to budge, especially the folks of Port Royal, who historically are non-movers. They have ultimate faith in their location. So far they have been proven right, every time.

The people of Caribbean Terrace share no such view. I had great fears for my friends who live there, as they were totally devastated twice by the effects of hurricane sea swells just three years apart. Thank God nothing happened this time.

What is disturbing is our appalling drainage system. Even before Matthew was a threat, we had some short episodes of rain, not lasting even a half-hour. When I went on the road, I could not believe the level of flooding that took place. Maybe those were the shots that the foreign film crews took and broadcast as devastation.

Can you imagine the catastrophe if a storm dumped rain on us for two or three days? Noah would have had to return. Something has to be done about this. The constant dumping of garbage in the gullies is a major problem that we will pay for dearly.

People still live on gully banks and even in riverbeds, living on borrowed time. Dem seh dem nah move. Some folks refuse to evacuate because they fear their possessions will be stolen. The fishermen at Pedro Cays fall into this category. Let’s not be hasty to judge, it’s a tough call.

Let’s give thanks again, for Matthew was a no-hurry cane, but he was deadly.

More time.

seido1@hotmail.com

Footnote: My heart grieves for the people of Haiti who once again were made to suffer from a natural disaster. How much more can that country take? I also feel it for the people of Cuba and The Bahamas. The US east coast took a huge pounding, but luckily was spared the full force of the hurricane and mostly dodged the bullet. We must pray for our international neighbours.