KINGSTON, Jamaica — Global oil prices fell below US$75 a barrel on Wednesday for the first time since the Iran war began, easing fears of a major supply shock but leaving Jamaican motorists and businesses to wait longer to know how much of the decline will reach local fuel prices.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell as much as 3.1 per cent to US$74.76 a barrel in London, its lowest level since February 27. West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, also declined about three per cent to US$71.04 a barrel.

The fall came as more tankers openly crossed the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil routes, and as the United States and Iran signalled early progress toward ending the war.

The International Maritime Organization has also received safety guarantees allowing hundreds of ships to leave the Persian Gulf, while the International Energy Agency estimates that the United Arab Emirates is now exporting oil at nearly 85 per cent of pre-war levels.

Oil prices are now down about 40 per cent from their peak during the conflict, as more barrels move through the Gulf and traders price in a lower risk of prolonged disruption.

For Jamaica, which imports fuel, the retreat in oil prices could help ease pressure on petrol, diesel, electricity costs, transport expenses and inflation if the decline is sustained.

But local pump prices are not expected to move in lockstep with daily crude-oil prices.

Petrojam is due to announce its latest weekly fuel price changes later today, giving motorists and businesses an early local marker after Brent’s fall below US$75. However, one weekly adjustment is unlikely to show the full impact of the latest slide in global crude prices.

The local context is that petrol prices remain well above where they were before the war began. Petrojam’s price archive shows that on February 26, 87-octane gasoline was listed at $151.32 per litre, while 90-octane was listed at $157.33 per litre.

By June 18, Petrojam listed 87-octane at $193.38 per litre and 90-octane at $200.83 per litre. That means 87-octane had increased by $42.06 per litre, or about 27.8 per cent, while 90-octane had risen by $43.50 per litre, or about 27.6 per cent, since the pre-war period.

Automotive diesel was listed at $211.75 per litre on June 18, down 25 cents from the previous week. Gasoline 87 and 90 were also down by 25 cents in Petrojam’s latest listed adjustment. Marketing companies and retailers add their own margins to Petrojam’s ex-refinery prices.

Petrojam’s ex-refinery pricing policy is based on import parity, which reflects the estimated cost of supplying Jamaica with finished petroleum products from the international market. That means local prices are influenced not only by crude prices, but also by finished-product prices, shipping, insurance, taxes, inventory timing and other market factors.

Several weekly price cycles may therefore be needed to judge whether the sharp fall in global oil prices is producing meaningful relief locally.

The issue has also become political in the United States, where President Donald Trump said he had ordered the Department of Justice to examine why gasoline prices have not fallen faster as oil prices decline. Bloomberg reported that the US national average retail gasoline price has fallen 14 per cent since late May, but remains above its five-year seasonal average.

For Jamaica, the question is similar: whether a major fall in global oil prices will translate into lower costs for consumers already facing high transport, electricity and food bills.

The answer may not come in one Petrojam announcement. But if Brent remains near or below US$75, pressure will build for the global oil retreat to eventually show up at local pumps.