More Jamaicans believe that the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) is best suited to run the country and is also the party they would like to see win the next general elections, according to a poll conducted for the Observer by Mark Wignall.

The poll, conducted August 25-27 in 48 communities across the island, sought the views of 1,454 voters on issues relating to the elections scheduled for next Monday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

According to Wignall, who understudied the late master pollster, Professor Carl Stone, when his team of pollsters asked the question: ‘Which party do you believe is best suited to run the country right now?’ 46 per cent of respondents said the JLP, while 39 per cent said the People’s National Party (PNP). A total of 15 per cent said they did not know.

“These answers fall strictly along party lines with the overwhelming majority of party supporters/voters answering in support of their respective parties,” said Wignall. “Among the undecided, the majority view favours the JLP.”

When the pollsters posed the question, ‘Which party would you like to see win the next elections?’, 44 per cent of those polled favoured the JLP, 37 per cent said the PNP, while 19 per cent said they did not know.

Said Wignall: “As the election nears, all of the indicators are showing a position in favour of the JLP with its 7 percentage point lead over the PNP in terms of which party respondents would like to see win the next elections.”

Question: Which party do you believe is best suited to run the country right now?

The JLP 46%

The PNP 39%

Don’t know 15%

100%

Question: Which party would you like to see win the next elections?

The JLP 44%

The PNP 37%

Don’t know 19%

100%

Wignall also said that his sample indicated an enumeration rate of 85 per cent, with those saying they intend to vote ranging between 71 per cent and 82 per cent.

The breakdown is as follows:

Intend to vote: 82%

Not voting: 18%

100%

Added Wignall: “In examining other characteristics of those who intend to vote, 71 per cent appear to be more firm on voting intention than the other 11 per cent.

“My experience in polling close to elections tells me that usually the lower end of the range tends to be closer to the actual vote, which is not to rule out the possibility of a 82 per cent turnout. Based on what the numbers are indicating, an 82 per cent turnout is likely only if that additional 11 per cent come on board at the last moment in a snowball effect. This was seen in the last month of 1980 when a last-minute poll indicated a gelling of the JLP position in comparison to its strength as indicated in a Carl Stone Poll done the month before.”