I will forever be thunderstruck by the level of sensationalism and the innumerable fallacies which have become customary each and every time there might be the possibility of a hurricane. There is a need, and even a responsibility, to keep the public informed of potential inclement weather for many reasons, not the least of which is safety, but the over sensationalism of our weather forecasts for the sole purpose of ratings causes unnecessary hype and panic.

Likewise, information and weather reporting from multiple sources can cause perplexity. A prime example of this happened on Friday, September 30, 2016 when the National Hurricane Center from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that Matthew became a Category Five, while on Twitter a major Jamaican organisation reported that it’s a Category Four, and then Digicel sent a text to say that Hurricane Matthew is now a Category Three.

While I was privileged to have Wi-Fi and cable television to keep myself updated via a multiplicity of sources, what about the people who lack these endowments? This brought several questions to the forefront of my mind. Who is mandated to disseminate crisis information? At what times should the information be disseminated? Are they credible sources? Because clearly, if a proper system is being followed we would never have so many misinformed people parading our streets completely unaware of the impending risk and their subsequent vulnerability.

Another issue that has not received thorough attention is the “cone of uncertainty” during the forecasts. The “cone”, which usually has a line sweeping down the middle, shows the probable track of the centre of hurricane but does not exactly highlight where the impacts will be felt from the “outer bands”. This phenomenon was entirely misconstrued by most people on social media.

As is evident, social media has dramatically changed the public’s expectations around communications. Social media sites like

Twitter are being monitored for real-time, location-specific impact to individuals and communities to deliver situational intelligence to emergency response teams as quickly as possible. It was so dumbfounding to see social media becoming a space where inaccurate information was being tossed around, for example: “A Haiti ah go get it; look weh d line deh”, or “The cone no touch we so we nah get it”, which showed complete ignorance of the outer bands of the hurricane.

As we have clearly seen, weather forecasting is not a perfect science, but the reporters also have a responsibility to be vigilant in properly explaining satellite images to the masses in simple terms so that they can properly prepare instead of heightening their own vulnerabilities.

Miscommunication heightens during a crisis and can be exaggerated by half-truths, distortions, or negative perceptions. In an age where social media is the main source of information for the people, it is imperative that information is centralised so that the number of misinformed people can be minimised. A major reason people do not evacuate, and thus suffer harsh consequences, is their uncertainty about these erratic weather systems. When there is a break in communication before, during and after a crisis this can mean disaster. In late August 2005, Hurricane Katrina was proof of this, and US officials still use this catastrophe as a reference of how what needs to be improved on for future disasters.

A rigid communication plan can be the thin line that separates a hazard from a disaster. Government officials in Jamaica should take the necessary steps to ensure that crisis communication is effective, comprehendable and trustworthy, thus lessening the potential loss of lives and property.

Juvelle Taylor is an assistant lecturer in geography and holds a master’s degree in environmental and disaster management. Send comments to the Observer orjuvelle.taylor@yahoo.com.