Dear summer, stop showing off
Scientists and scholars of weather systems have been guiding us through this most dreadful period of hot temperatures.
We may well question the wisdom of Hugh Doston (“Dossie”) Carberry in his poem Nature, which spoke of Jamaica having “neither summer nor winter”, as, indeed, summer is upon us “when the gold sun shines… magnificently”.
No doubt, we have had to employ differing measures to remain hydrated and cool — or near to it — in outdoor spaces.
Against this background, old-time folks would begin to have premonitions of imminent disaster.
So, we are not startled by news from the Meteorological Service of Jamaica that when the rains come, they will “beat like bullets”.
Latest reports of the service are that the region may experience more storms this hurricane season than initially anticipated.
June 1 marked the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season which runs through to November.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), out of Washington, DC, concurs with our Met Service, advising that “due to current ocean and atmospheric conditions, such as record-warm sea surface temperatures, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service — has increased their prediction for the ongoing 2023 Atlantic hurricane season to an above-normal level of activity from a near-normal level with their most recent update”.
So the heat of this period is expected to cause the outlook of a 70 per cent chance of “14 to 21 named storms, of which six to 11 could become hurricanes, and two to five could become major hurricanes”.
The updated outlook also states that current conditions are likely to counterbalance the usually limiting atmospheric conditions associated with the ongoing El Niño event.
For his part, director of Jamaica weather service, Mr Evan Thompson, on Friday, said that the likelihood of storms is now twice as much as was predicted at the beginning of June.
Mr Thompson offers some hope, however, with: “We are seeing, maybe, some improvement coming in the near future. Right now, it has not been issued yet, but we believe we are moving closer to near normal or even above normal rainfall for Jamaica as we move towards October.”
He encouraged, nonetheless, the building of resilience in the rising heat.
Though talk of the widening hole in the ozone layer of the 80s and 90s has given way to the El Niño event, the warning of the planet heating up has been long in coming.
Small island developing states, like Jamaica, the rest of the Caribbean and much of the Pacific, need to actively prepare populations for the contrasting extremes of dry and wet.
As the weather people signpost, this dreadful heat is a prelude to the torrent of showers, it would be remiss if we in this space did not — ask: What then is being done in preparation?
Temperature records continue to be broken and this nation cannot sit in the sun hoping for soft rain.
American writer Elizabeth Spencer, in her first novel, Fire in the Morning, published in 1948, penned these words: “As to heat, it is not a question of degree but of kind. July heat is furious, but in August the heat has killed even itself and lies dead over us.”
O, summer, stop showing off!