Dear Editor,

In the sun-drenched markets of Kingston or the bauxite-dusted hills of Clarendon, Jamaica’s economy hums with the rhythm of resilience — a beat that is equal parts reggae defiance and fiscal frustration. But peel back the layers of our island’s vibrant façade and you’ll find a stark economic waltz: for every four US dollars Jamaica shells out to the world in imports, we pocket just one from exports.

It’s a lopsided dance that has grown even more pronounced in the first five months of 2025, leaving economists like me wondering if it’s time to switch partners or learn some new steps.

The numbers, freshly crunched by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin), paint a picture as unflattering as a tourist’s sunburn. Between January and May imports surged to a hefty US$3.16 billion, up 3.6 per cent from the same period last year — a voracious appetite fuelled by raw materials, consumer goods, and fuel.

Meanwhile, export earnings limped in at a mere US$773 million, down a painful 6.9 per cent year-over-year. That’s not just a deficit; it’s a chasm. Imports are outpacing exports by a factor of four. For context, the first quarter alone clocked a US$1.1-billion trade gap, and early year trends suggest the full-year bleed could widen further.

This isn’t mere statistical sleight of hand. Jamaica’s economy, projected to grow at a modest 1.7 per cent in 2025, is buoyed by agriculture, mining, and construction. Yet beneath this veneer the trade imbalance reveals deeper fault lines: a structural addiction to imported essentials.

We are a net importer by necessity, not choice, in a global market in which commodity prices swing like a limbo pole under low light. The sharp 26.8 per cent plunge in mineral fuel exports — our erstwhile cash cow — exemplifies this volatility, hammered by softer global demand and geopolitical ripples from conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.

Look at our trade partners, and the plot thickens. The United States remains our top import suitor, alongside China, Brazil, Nigeria, and Japan, funnelling in US$1.96 billion worth of goods — a 9.8 per cent jump, largely on the back of fuels and chemicals.

On the export side, it’s a curious mix: the US, again, followed by the Russian Federation, Iceland, Canada, and the Netherlands. But shipments to these dipped 0.7 per cent to US$559 million. Bauxite and alumina, our traditional heavy hitters, held steady but couldn’t stem the tide.

It’s a reminder that Jamaica’s export basket is as narrow as a Montego Bay alley — over-reliant on raw commodities the world can source elsewhere when prices dip.

Economists have long diagnosed this as Jamaica’s chronic condition: a current account deficit averaging over US$800 million annually. But 2025 feels like a flare-up.

Inflation, mercifully tame at 3.3 per cent through July, offers some breathing room, courtesy of the Bank of Jamaica’s steady hand. And in a rare bright spot, S&P Global recently upgraded our sovereign credit rating to ‘BB’ from ‘BB-’, signalling investor confidence in fiscal reforms and debt management.

Yet these macroeconomic Band-Aids do little to staunch the trade haemorrhage. Without diversification, we are mortgaging tomorrow’s growth on today’s borrowed barrels.

So what’s the prescription?

1) That bauxite we ship raw? Process it into higher-margin aluminum alloys here — creating jobs and export dollars in one fell swoop.

2) Tourism and remittances already prop up the balance of payments, but why not export cultural intellectual property, like digital content or ecotourism packages, to offset goods shortfalls?

3) Targeted incentives for non-traditional exports could broaden the base.

4) Deeper ties with Caricom could reroute some intra-island trade away from dollar-draining global partners.

We’ve mastered the art of economic survival. Now it’s time to choreograph prosperity. The band is playing; let’s lead the dance.

Janiel McEwan

janielmcewan17@gmail.com